{"status":"ok","snapshotId":"vlt-1789039244420","asOf":"2026-09-10T11:20:44.420Z","dataAsOf":"2026-09-10T06:14:21.264Z","dataAgeHours":5.1,"staleAfterHours":72,"producerStaleAfterHours":36,"producerLastRanAt":"2026-09-10T06:14:21.476Z","producerAgeHours":5.1,"servedRowsNote":null,"claimTier":"verified","dataOrigin":"measured","calculationStatus":"precomputed","trackRecord":[{"day":"2026-09-10T00:00:00.000Z","engine":"momentum","horizon_tier":"2h","bar_regime":"crypto","qualifying_events":5550,"warned_events":120,"recall_pct":2.16,"lead_p25_hours":0.22,"lead_median_hours":0.46,"lead_p75_hours":0.69,"effective_sample":6942,"precision_pct":49.53,"base_rate_pct":46.99,"publishable":true,"methodology_version":"v6-material-lift-2026-08-22","computed_at":"2026-09-10T06:14:21.030Z","claim_family":"directional","identity_population":"verified_only"},{"day":"2026-09-10T00:00:00.000Z","engine":"momentum","horizon_tier":"2h","bar_regime":"equity","qualifying_events":5567,"warned_events":4,"recall_pct":0.07,"lead_p25_hours":0.4,"lead_median_hours":0.44,"lead_p75_hours":0.46,"effective_sample":7783,"precision_pct":52.66,"base_rate_pct":50.43,"publishable":true,"methodology_version":"v6-material-lift-2026-08-22","computed_at":"2026-09-10T06:14:21.264Z","claim_family":"directional","identity_population":"verified_only"}],"identityAuthority":{"available":true,"state":"measured","selectionState":"measured","storedPopulation":"mixed","verified":766981,"verifiedFleet":766981,"verifiedPublicRead":0,"legacyReferencesOnly":2935398,"quarantined":32491,"total":3734870,"authorityEligible":766981,"policy":"verified_only","note":"The retained table contains legacy or quarantined references, but the selected performance population is complete and verified-only; excluded rows are counted here and cannot affect the aggregate."},"identity_population":"verified_only","withheld":{"available":true,"count":116,"note":"Measured strata that did NOT clear the publishability gate. Their figures are real and are NOT quotable. A stratum listed here means Fahali holds no publishable reading for that engine on that horizon and instrument class — an absence of evidence, never evidence of calm.","strata":[{"stratum":"absorption_volume · 8h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for absorption_volume: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"absorption_volume · 8h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","reason":"no measurable equity evidence for absorption_volume: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"agent_verdict · 24h · crypto","effectiveSample":2527,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","reason":"precision does not beat its own base rate (45.5 vs 52.99)"},{"stratum":"agent_verdict · 24h · equity","effectiveSample":13,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","reason":"no lead time (warned_events=0)"},{"stratum":"anomaly · 2h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for anomaly: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"anomaly · 2h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","reason":"no measurable equity evidence for anomaly: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"canonical_verdict · 72h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for canonical_verdict: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"canonical_verdict · 72h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","reason":"no measurable equity evidence for canonical_verdict: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"cascade_engine · 8h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for cascade_engine: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"cascade_engine · 8h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","reason":"no measurable equity evidence for cascade_engine: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"causality_engine · 8h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for causality_engine: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"causality_engine · 8h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","reason":"no measurable equity evidence for causality_engine: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"committee_verdict · 24h · crypto","effectiveSample":982,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","reason":"lift is not distinguishable from zero (+1.1pp, Wilson95 floor -2.03pp, n_eff=982)"},{"stratum":"committee_verdict · 24h · equity","effectiveSample":21,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","reason":"effective sample below floor (n_eff=21 < 30)"},{"stratum":"correlated_surge · 8h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for correlated_surge: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"correlated_surge · 8h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","reason":"no measurable equity evidence for correlated_surge: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"correlation · 48h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for correlation: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"correlation · 48h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","reason":"no measurable equity evidence for correlation: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"crash_predictor · 2h · crypto","effectiveSample":7986,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","reason":"precision does not beat its own base rate (26.92 vs 38.89)"},{"stratum":"crash_predictor · 2h · equity","effectiveSample":49,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","reason":"no lead time (warned_events=0)"},{"stratum":"cross_asset_rotation · 24h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for cross_asset_rotation: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"cross_asset_rotation · 24h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","reason":"no measurable equity evidence for cross_asset_rotation: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"cross_asset_structure · 24h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for cross_asset_structure: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"cross_asset_structure · 24h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","reason":"no measurable equity evidence for cross_asset_structure: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"dark_pool · 8h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for dark_pool: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"dark_pool · 8h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","reason":"no measurable equity evidence for dark_pool: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"decline_volume_surge · 8h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for decline_volume_surge: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"decline_volume_surge · 8h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","reason":"no measurable equity evidence for decline_volume_surge: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"down_up_volume_ratio · 8h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for down_up_volume_ratio: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"down_up_volume_ratio · 8h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","reason":"no measurable equity evidence for down_up_volume_ratio: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"early_warning · 48h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for early_warning: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"early_warning · 48h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","reason":"no measurable equity evidence for early_warning: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"early_warning_24h · 24h · crypto","effectiveSample":8843,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","reason":"precision does not beat its own base rate (11.25 vs 26.16)"},{"stratum":"early_warning_24h · 24h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","reason":"no measurable equity evidence for early_warning_24h: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"early_warning_6h · 8h · crypto","effectiveSample":5632,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","reason":"precision does not beat its own base rate (1.7 vs 4.13)"},{"stratum":"early_warning_6h · 8h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","reason":"no measurable equity evidence for early_warning_6h: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"early_warning_72h · 72h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for early_warning_72h: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"early_warning_72h · 72h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","reason":"no measurable equity evidence for early_warning_72h: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"early_warning_synthesis · 48h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for early_warning_synthesis: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"early_warning_synthesis · 48h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","reason":"no measurable equity evidence for early_warning_synthesis: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"etf_inflow · 8h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for etf_inflow: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"etf_inflow · 8h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","reason":"no measurable equity evidence for etf_inflow: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"flash_crash_detected · 2h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for flash_crash_detected: truth condition flash_crash_v1 bounds the event to 900s and this base cannot express a duration bound; scoring it against a base that counts slow declines would inflate the lift"},{"stratum":"flash_crash_detected · 2h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","reason":"no measurable equity evidence for flash_crash_detected: truth condition flash_crash_v1 bounds the event to 900s and this base cannot express a duration bound; scoring it against a base that counts slow declines would inflate the lift"},{"stratum":"flash_crash_precursor · 2h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for flash_crash_precursor: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"flash_crash_precursor · 2h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","reason":"no measurable equity evidence for flash_crash_precursor: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"forecast_72h · 72h · crypto","effectiveSample":64,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","reason":"precision does not beat its own base rate (35.62 vs 50.1)"},{"stratum":"forecast_72h · 72h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","reason":"no measurable equity evidence for forecast_72h: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"funding_measured · 48h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for funding_measured: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"funding_measured · 48h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","reason":"no measurable equity evidence for funding_measured: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"funding_proxy · 8h · crypto","effectiveSample":2328,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","reason":"no lead time (warned_events=0)"},{"stratum":"funding_proxy · 8h · equity","effectiveSample":654,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","reason":"no lead time (warned_events=0)"},{"stratum":"funding_stress · 48h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for funding_stress: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"funding_stress · 48h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","reason":"no measurable equity evidence for funding_stress: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"hidden_liquidity · 2h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for hidden_liquidity: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"hidden_liquidity · 2h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","reason":"no measurable equity evidence for hidden_liquidity: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"hidden_size_proxy · 8h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for hidden_size_proxy: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"hidden_size_proxy · 8h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","reason":"no measurable equity evidence for hidden_size_proxy: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"large_print · 8h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for large_print: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"large_print · 8h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","reason":"no measurable equity evidence for large_print: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"leverage · 48h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for leverage: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"leverage · 48h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","reason":"no measurable equity evidence for leverage: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"leverage_measured · 48h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for leverage_measured: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"leverage_measured · 48h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","reason":"no measurable equity evidence for leverage_measured: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"leverage_proxy · 48h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for leverage_proxy: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"leverage_proxy · 48h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","reason":"no measurable equity evidence for leverage_proxy: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"market_regime · 48h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for market_regime: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"market_regime · 48h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","reason":"no measurable equity evidence for market_regime: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"market_regime_flip · 48h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for market_regime_flip: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"market_regime_flip · 48h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","reason":"no measurable equity evidence for market_regime_flip: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"microstructure · 8h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for microstructure: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"microstructure · 8h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","reason":"no measurable equity evidence for microstructure: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"ml_ensemble · 2h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for ml_ensemble: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"ml_ensemble · 2h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","reason":"no measurable equity evidence for ml_ensemble: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"momentum · 2h · crypto","effectiveSample":5348,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","reason":"precision does not beat its own base rate (46.56 vs 46.98)"},{"stratum":"momentum · 2h · equity","effectiveSample":6255,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","reason":"precision does not beat its own base rate (49.29 vs 50.31)"},{"stratum":"ofi · 8h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for ofi: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"ofi · 8h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","reason":"no measurable equity evidence for ofi: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"ofi_candle_proxy · 8h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for ofi_candle_proxy: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"ofi_candle_proxy · 8h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","reason":"no measurable equity evidence for ofi_candle_proxy: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"pattern · 2h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for pattern: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"pattern · 2h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","reason":"no measurable equity evidence for pattern: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"rising_volume_flat_price · 8h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for rising_volume_flat_price: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"rising_volume_flat_price · 8h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","reason":"no measurable equity evidence for rising_volume_flat_price: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"risk_intelligence · 48h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for risk_intelligence: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"risk_intelligence · 48h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","reason":"no measurable equity evidence for risk_intelligence: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"risk_intelligence_liquidation · 8h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for risk_intelligence_liquidation: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"risk_intelligence_liquidation · 8h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","reason":"no measurable equity evidence for risk_intelligence_liquidation: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"risk_intelligence_measured · 48h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for risk_intelligence_measured: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"risk_intelligence_measured · 48h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","reason":"no measurable equity evidence for risk_intelligence_measured: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"risk_intelligence_news · 8h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for risk_intelligence_news: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"risk_intelligence_news · 8h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","reason":"no measurable equity evidence for risk_intelligence_news: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"risk_intelligence_systemic · 8h · crypto","effectiveSample":2644,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","reason":"lift is not distinguishable from zero (+0.13pp, Wilson95 floor -1.0pp, n_eff=2644)"},{"stratum":"risk_intelligence_systemic · 8h · equity","effectiveSample":257,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","reason":"no lead time (warned_events=0)"},{"stratum":"sentiment · 8h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for sentiment: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"sentiment · 8h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","reason":"no measurable equity evidence for sentiment: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"sentiment_news · 8h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for sentiment_news: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"sentiment_news · 8h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","reason":"no measurable equity evidence for sentiment_news: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"stablecoin · 48h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for stablecoin: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"stablecoin · 48h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","reason":"no measurable equity evidence for stablecoin: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"tail_dependence · 48h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for tail_dependence: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"tail_dependence · 48h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","reason":"no measurable equity evidence for tail_dependence: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"temporal_arbitrage · 24h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for temporal_arbitrage: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"temporal_arbitrage · 24h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","reason":"no measurable equity evidence for temporal_arbitrage: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"volatility · 2h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for volatility: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"volatility · 2h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","reason":"no measurable equity evidence for volatility: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"volatility_iv_rv · 2h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for volatility_iv_rv: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"volatility_iv_rv · 2h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","reason":"no measurable equity evidence for volatility_iv_rv: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"volatility_realised · 2h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for volatility_realised: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"volatility_realised · 2h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","reason":"no measurable equity evidence for volatility_realised: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"volatility_v2 · 2h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for volatility_v2: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"volatility_v2 · 2h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","reason":"no measurable equity evidence for volatility_v2: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"volume_shock · 8h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for volume_shock: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"volume_shock · 8h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","reason":"no measurable equity evidence for volume_shock: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"wick_sweep · 8h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for wick_sweep: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"wick_sweep · 8h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","reason":"no measurable equity evidence for wick_sweep: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"}]},"headline":{"day":"2026-09-10T00:00:00.000Z","engine":"momentum","horizon_tier":"2h","bar_regime":"crypto","qualifying_events":5550,"warned_events":120,"recall_pct":2.16,"lead_p25_hours":0.22,"lead_median_hours":0.46,"lead_p75_hours":0.69,"effective_sample":6942,"precision_pct":49.53,"base_rate_pct":46.99,"publishable":true,"methodology_version":"v6-material-lift-2026-08-22","computed_at":"2026-09-10T06:14:21.030Z","claim_family":"directional","identity_population":"verified_only","lift_pp":2.539999999999999,"measured_on":"2026-09-10T00:00:00.000Z","claim_family_resolved":"directional","claim_family_label":"Directional: precision is the share of calls where price moved the way this stratum said it would."},"headlineWithheldReason":null,"headlineSelection":{"rankedBy":"recall_pct","among":"strata clearing the publishability gate with positive base-rate lift","minEffectiveSample":1000,"maxStratumLagDays":3,"eligibleStrata":2},"claimKind":{"family":"directional","means":"Directional: precision is the share of calls where price moved the way this stratum said it would.","isDirectional":true},"recordSelection":{"collapsedTo":"newest row per engine × horizon × instrument class","maxStratumLagDays":3,"publishedStrata":2,"withheldFrozen":0,"withheldStale":0},"abstentionReason":null,"provenance":{"methodology":"https://fahaliai.com/methodology#vlt","methodologyVersion":"v5-horizon-2sigma-2026-07-20","floor":"2026-07-02T12:00:00Z"}}