{"status":"ok","snapshotId":"vlt-1792931258488","asOf":"2026-10-25T12:27:38.488Z","dataAsOf":"2026-10-25T07:43:16.294Z","dataAgeHours":4.7,"staleAfterHours":72,"producerStaleAfterHours":36,"producerLastRanAt":"2026-10-25T07:43:16.307Z","producerAgeHours":4.7,"servedRowsNote":null,"claimTier":"verified","dataOrigin":"measured","calculationStatus":"precomputed","identityAuthority":{"available":true,"state":"measured","selectionState":"measured","storedPopulation":"mixed","verified":6172162,"verifiedFleet":6172118,"verifiedPublicRead":44,"legacyReferencesOnly":2935424,"quarantined":406764,"total":9514350,"authorityEligible":6172118,"policy":"verified_only","note":"The retained table contains legacy or quarantined references, but the selected performance population is complete and verified-only; excluded rows are counted here and cannot affect the aggregate.","source":"census","computedAt":"2026-10-25T12:02:22.165Z"},"identity_population":"verified_only","trackRecord":[{"day":"2026-10-25T00:00:00.000Z","engine":"agent_verdict_awm2","horizon_tier":"24h","bar_regime":"crypto","qualifying_events":208,"warned_events":124,"recall_pct":59.62,"lead_p25_hours":10.52,"lead_median_hours":16.5,"lead_p75_hours":21.01,"effective_sample":11685,"precision_pct":62.86,"base_rate_pct":54.97,"publishable":true,"methodology_version":"v9-early-onset-warnings-only-2026-10-10","computed_at":"2026-10-25T07:43:15.205Z","claim_family":"directional","identity_population":"verified_only","quiet_windows":37298,"quiet_warned":17706,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":47.47,"events_from":"2026-10-08T13:02:59.412Z","base_kind":null,"verdict":{"grade":"beats_chance","label":"Beats chance","probabilityOfSkill":1,"reason":"62.9% of 11,685 warnings came true, against a 55.0% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Beats chance (probability the edge is real: 1.00)."}},{"day":"2026-10-25T00:00:00.000Z","engine":"committee_verdict_awm2","horizon_tier":"24h","bar_regime":"crypto","qualifying_events":226,"warned_events":28,"recall_pct":12.39,"lead_p25_hours":10.51,"lead_median_hours":17.7,"lead_p75_hours":22.41,"effective_sample":1797,"precision_pct":62.98,"base_rate_pct":54.97,"publishable":true,"methodology_version":"v9-early-onset-warnings-only-2026-10-10","computed_at":"2026-10-25T07:43:15.192Z","claim_family":"directional","identity_population":"verified_only","quiet_windows":40544,"quiet_warned":2706,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":6.67,"events_from":"2026-10-07T07:14:59.780Z","base_kind":null,"verdict":{"grade":"beats_chance","label":"Beats chance","probabilityOfSkill":0.9999999999969363,"reason":"63.0% of 1,797 warnings came true, against a 55.0% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Beats chance (probability the edge is real: 1.00)."}},{"day":"2026-10-25T00:00:00.000Z","engine":"contagion_directional","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","qualifying_events":1475,"warned_events":26,"recall_pct":1.76,"lead_p25_hours":2.48,"lead_median_hours":4.19,"lead_p75_hours":4.98,"effective_sample":2982,"precision_pct":16.03,"base_rate_pct":8.54,"publishable":true,"methodology_version":"v9-early-onset-warnings-only-2026-10-10","computed_at":"2026-10-25T07:43:13.146Z","claim_family":"magnitude","identity_population":"verified_only","quiet_windows":96914,"quiet_warned":1599,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":1.65,"events_from":"2026-09-18T01:14:06.140Z","base_kind":null,"verdict":{"grade":"beats_chance","label":"Beats chance","probabilityOfSkill":1,"reason":"16.0% of 2,982 warnings came true, against a 8.5% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Beats chance (probability the edge is real: 1.00)."}},{"day":"2026-10-25T00:00:00.000Z","engine":"crash_predictor","horizon_tier":"2h","bar_regime":"crypto","qualifying_events":2873,"warned_events":632,"recall_pct":22,"lead_p25_hours":0.86,"lead_median_hours":1.63,"lead_p75_hours":1.96,"effective_sample":94520,"precision_pct":49.66,"base_rate_pct":44.96,"publishable":true,"methodology_version":"v9-early-onset-warnings-only-2026-10-10","computed_at":"2026-10-25T07:43:14.232Z","claim_family":"event_detection","identity_population":"verified_only","quiet_windows":146710,"quiet_warned":32505,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":22.16,"events_from":"2026-09-01T05:51:06.051Z","base_kind":"symbol_matched","verdict":{"grade":"beats_chance","label":"Beats chance","probabilityOfSkill":1,"reason":"49.7% of 94,520 warnings came true, against a 45.0% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Beats chance (probability the edge is real: 1.00)."}},{"day":"2026-10-25T00:00:00.000Z","engine":"crash_predictor","horizon_tier":"2h","bar_regime":"equity","qualifying_events":3405,"warned_events":16,"recall_pct":0.47,"lead_p25_hours":0.25,"lead_median_hours":0.45,"lead_p75_hours":1.36,"effective_sample":6543,"precision_pct":1.4,"base_rate_pct":0.74,"publishable":true,"methodology_version":"v9-early-onset-warnings-only-2026-10-10","computed_at":"2026-10-25T07:43:15.484Z","claim_family":"event_detection","identity_population":"verified_only","quiet_windows":173269,"quiet_warned":1672,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0.96,"events_from":"2026-09-01T05:51:06.051Z","base_kind":"symbol_matched","verdict":{"grade":"beats_chance","label":"Beats chance","probabilityOfSkill":0.9999999817119933,"reason":"1.4% of 6,543 warnings came true, against a 0.7% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Beats chance (probability the edge is real: 1.00)."}},{"day":"2026-10-25T00:00:00.000Z","engine":"early_warning_6h","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","qualifying_events":1929,"warned_events":443,"recall_pct":22.97,"lead_p25_hours":1.88,"lead_median_hours":3.95,"lead_p75_hours":5.62,"effective_sample":23728,"precision_pct":9.87,"base_rate_pct":5.36,"publishable":true,"methodology_version":"v9-early-onset-warnings-only-2026-10-10","computed_at":"2026-10-25T07:43:15.028Z","claim_family":"event_detection","identity_population":"verified_only","quiet_windows":140481,"quiet_warned":16152,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":11.5,"events_from":"2026-09-02T17:40:51.997Z","base_kind":"symbol_matched","verdict":{"grade":"beats_chance","label":"Beats chance","probabilityOfSkill":1,"reason":"9.9% of 23,728 warnings came true, against a 5.4% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Beats chance (probability the edge is real: 1.00)."}},{"day":"2026-10-25T00:00:00.000Z","engine":"learned_fall_risk","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","qualifying_events":202,"warned_events":57,"recall_pct":28.22,"lead_p25_hours":3.36,"lead_median_hours":4.79,"lead_p75_hours":6.36,"effective_sample":3156,"precision_pct":33.74,"base_rate_pct":17.54,"publishable":true,"methodology_version":"v9-early-onset-warnings-only-2026-10-10","computed_at":"2026-10-25T07:43:14.855Z","claim_family":"event_detection","identity_population":"verified_only","quiet_windows":33441,"quiet_warned":2745,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":8.21,"events_from":"2026-10-11T14:01:36.791Z","base_kind":"symbol_matched","verdict":{"grade":"beats_chance","label":"Beats chance","probabilityOfSkill":1,"reason":"33.7% of 3,156 warnings came true, against a 17.5% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Beats chance (probability the edge is real: 1.00)."}},{"day":"2026-10-25T00:00:00.000Z","engine":"momentum","horizon_tier":"2h","bar_regime":"crypto","qualifying_events":3552,"warned_events":963,"recall_pct":27.11,"lead_p25_hours":0.2,"lead_median_hours":0.44,"lead_p75_hours":0.69,"effective_sample":121098,"precision_pct":49.35,"base_rate_pct":48.21,"publishable":true,"methodology_version":"v9-early-onset-warnings-only-2026-10-10","computed_at":"2026-10-25T07:43:13.370Z","claim_family":"directional","identity_population":"verified_only","quiet_windows":147321,"quiet_warned":17688,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":12.01,"events_from":"2026-09-01T05:34:46.717Z","base_kind":null,"verdict":{"grade":"beats_chance","label":"Beats chance","probabilityOfSkill":0.999999999999999,"reason":"49.4% of 121,098 warnings came true, against a 48.2% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Beats chance (probability the edge is real: 1.00)."}},{"day":"2026-10-25T00:00:00.000Z","engine":"ofi_candle_proxy","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","qualifying_events":248,"warned_events":3,"recall_pct":1.21,"lead_p25_hours":0.77,"lead_median_hours":3.31,"lead_p75_hours":4.25,"effective_sample":867,"precision_pct":15.06,"base_rate_pct":6.07,"publishable":true,"methodology_version":"v9-early-onset-warnings-only-2026-10-10","computed_at":"2026-10-25T07:43:14.616Z","claim_family":"magnitude","identity_population":"verified_only","quiet_windows":38683,"quiet_warned":390,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":1.01,"events_from":"2026-10-10T00:22:35.851Z","base_kind":null,"verdict":{"grade":"beats_chance","label":"Beats chance","probabilityOfSkill":1,"reason":"15.1% of 867 warnings came true, against a 6.1% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Beats chance (probability the edge is real: 1.00)."}},{"day":"2026-10-25T00:00:00.000Z","engine":"risk_intelligence_systemic","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","qualifying_events":2074,"warned_events":122,"recall_pct":5.88,"lead_p25_hours":1,"lead_median_hours":2.2,"lead_p75_hours":3.43,"effective_sample":13268,"precision_pct":17.48,"base_rate_pct":6.91,"publishable":true,"methodology_version":"v9-early-onset-warnings-only-2026-10-10","computed_at":"2026-10-25T07:43:14.975Z","claim_family":"magnitude","identity_population":"verified_only","quiet_windows":145307,"quiet_warned":9406,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":6.47,"events_from":"2026-09-01T05:35:40.466Z","base_kind":null,"verdict":{"grade":"beats_chance","label":"Beats chance","probabilityOfSkill":1,"reason":"17.5% of 13,268 warnings came true, against a 6.9% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Beats chance (probability the edge is real: 1.00)."}},{"day":"2026-10-25T00:00:00.000Z","engine":"risk_intelligence_systemic","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"equity","qualifying_events":2534,"warned_events":2,"recall_pct":0.08,"lead_p25_hours":0.28,"lead_median_hours":0.73,"lead_p75_hours":0.73,"effective_sample":978,"precision_pct":32.38,"base_rate_pct":10.84,"publishable":true,"methodology_version":"v9-early-onset-warnings-only-2026-10-10","computed_at":"2026-10-25T07:43:16.091Z","claim_family":"magnitude","identity_population":"verified_only","quiet_windows":170471,"quiet_warned":357,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0.21,"events_from":"2026-09-01T05:35:40.466Z","base_kind":null,"verdict":{"grade":"beats_chance","label":"Beats chance","probabilityOfSkill":1,"reason":"32.4% of 978 warnings came true, against a 10.8% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Beats chance (probability the edge is real: 1.00)."}},{"day":"2026-10-25T00:00:00.000Z","engine":"state_vote_verdict","horizon_tier":"24h","bar_regime":"crypto","qualifying_events":191,"warned_events":80,"recall_pct":41.88,"lead_p25_hours":10.79,"lead_median_hours":13.39,"lead_p75_hours":19.82,"effective_sample":5285,"precision_pct":68.85,"base_rate_pct":54.97,"publishable":true,"methodology_version":"v9-early-onset-warnings-only-2026-10-10","computed_at":"2026-10-25T07:43:15.215Z","claim_family":"directional","identity_population":"verified_only","quiet_windows":34534,"quiet_warned":11492,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":33.28,"events_from":"2026-10-09T13:25:03.561Z","base_kind":null,"verdict":{"grade":"beats_chance","label":"Beats chance","probabilityOfSkill":1,"reason":"68.8% of 5,285 warnings came true, against a 55.0% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Beats chance (probability the edge is real: 1.00)."}},{"day":"2026-10-25T00:00:00.000Z","engine":"state_vote_verdict","horizon_tier":"24h","bar_regime":"equity","qualifying_events":223,"warned_events":52,"recall_pct":23.32,"lead_p25_hours":2.25,"lead_median_hours":8.04,"lead_p75_hours":19.38,"effective_sample":4150,"precision_pct":55.63,"base_rate_pct":51.2,"publishable":true,"methodology_version":"v9-early-onset-warnings-only-2026-10-10","computed_at":"2026-10-25T07:43:16.294Z","claim_family":"directional","identity_population":"verified_only","quiet_windows":37476,"quiet_warned":4982,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":13.29,"events_from":"2026-10-09T13:25:03.561Z","base_kind":null,"verdict":{"grade":"beats_chance","label":"Beats chance","probabilityOfSkill":0.9999999945650105,"reason":"55.6% of 4,150 warnings came true, against a 51.2% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Beats chance (probability the edge is real: 1.00)."}},{"day":"2026-10-25T00:00:00.000Z","engine":"ta_mean_reversion","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","qualifying_events":229,"warned_events":30,"recall_pct":13.1,"lead_p25_hours":2.92,"lead_median_hours":3.93,"lead_p75_hours":6.93,"effective_sample":948,"precision_pct":60.48,"base_rate_pct":52.76,"publishable":true,"methodology_version":"v9-early-onset-warnings-only-2026-10-10","computed_at":"2026-10-25T07:43:14.945Z","claim_family":"directional","identity_population":"verified_only","quiet_windows":38936,"quiet_warned":609,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":1.56,"events_from":"2026-10-09T15:55:06.807Z","base_kind":null,"verdict":{"grade":"beats_chance","label":"Beats chance","probabilityOfSkill":0.9999991357230703,"reason":"60.5% of 948 warnings came true, against a 52.8% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Beats chance (probability the edge is real: 1.00)."}},{"day":"2026-10-25T00:00:00.000Z","engine":"ta_topology_regime","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","qualifying_events":229,"warned_events":10,"recall_pct":4.37,"lead_p25_hours":1.9,"lead_median_hours":6.91,"lead_p75_hours":6.93,"effective_sample":725,"precision_pct":20.5,"base_rate_pct":7.07,"publishable":true,"methodology_version":"v9-early-onset-warnings-only-2026-10-10","computed_at":"2026-10-25T07:43:14.958Z","claim_family":"magnitude","identity_population":"verified_only","quiet_windows":38936,"quiet_warned":605,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":1.55,"events_from":"2026-10-09T15:55:05.610Z","base_kind":null,"verdict":{"grade":"beats_chance","label":"Beats chance","probabilityOfSkill":1,"reason":"20.5% of 725 warnings came true, against a 7.1% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Beats chance (probability the edge is real: 1.00)."}},{"day":"2026-10-25T00:00:00.000Z","engine":"ta_transport_shift","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","qualifying_events":229,"warned_events":3,"recall_pct":1.31,"lead_p25_hours":0.91,"lead_median_hours":4.91,"lead_p75_hours":7.94,"effective_sample":314,"precision_pct":19.56,"base_rate_pct":7.85,"publishable":true,"methodology_version":"v9-early-onset-warnings-only-2026-10-10","computed_at":"2026-10-25T07:43:14.962Z","claim_family":"magnitude","identity_population":"verified_only","quiet_windows":38936,"quiet_warned":278,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0.71,"events_from":"2026-10-09T15:55:43.165Z","base_kind":null,"verdict":{"grade":"beats_chance","label":"Beats chance","probabilityOfSkill":0.9999999999699618,"reason":"19.6% of 314 warnings came true, against a 7.8% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Beats chance (probability the edge is real: 1.00)."}}],"withheld":{"available":true,"count":232,"note":"Measured strata below the headline bar. Every one carries its measured verdict against chance (verdict.grade) and the reason it is below the bar. A grade of 'indistinguishable from chance' is a finding about the warning, never evidence of calm.","strata":[{"stratum":"absorption_volume · 8h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"absorption_volume","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":320895,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for absorption_volume: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"absorption_volume · 8h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"absorption_volume","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":357822,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for absorption_volume: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"agent_verdict · 24h · crypto","effectiveSample":33372,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"agent_verdict","horizon_tier":"24h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":52.08,"base_rate_pct":54.97,"recall_pct":49.12,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":39.83,"quiet_windows":132675,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":613,"lead_median_hours":17.03,"claim_family":"directional","reason":"precision does not beat its own base rate (52.08 vs 54.97)","verdict":{"grade":"worse_than_chance","label":"Worse than chance","probabilityOfSkill":0,"reason":"52.1% of 33,372 warnings came true, against a 55.0% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Worse than chance (probability the edge is real: 0.00)."}},{"stratum":"agent_verdict · 24h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"agent_verdict","horizon_tier":"24h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0.15,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":null,"quiet_windows":null,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":3,"lead_median_hours":14.75,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for agent_verdict: neither a non-directional population for the magnitude gate, nor enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"agent_verdict · 24h · equity","effectiveSample":372,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"agent_verdict","horizon_tier":"24h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":52.68,"base_rate_pct":51.2,"recall_pct":0.5,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0.35,"quiet_windows":156357,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":7,"lead_median_hours":16.89,"claim_family":"directional","reason":"lift is not distinguishable from zero (+1.48pp, Wilson95 floor -3.6pp, n_eff=372)","verdict":{"grade":"indistinguishable_from_chance","label":"Indistinguishable from chance","probabilityOfSkill":0.7160610469848112,"reason":"52.7% of 372 warnings came true, against a 51.2% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Indistinguishable from chance (probability the edge is real: 0.72)."}},{"stratum":"agent_verdict · 24h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"agent_verdict","horizon_tier":"24h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":null,"quiet_windows":null,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for agent_verdict: neither a non-directional population for the magnitude gate, nor enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"agent_verdict_awm2 · 24h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"agent_verdict_awm2","horizon_tier":"24h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":257557,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for agent_verdict_awm2: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"agent_verdict_awm2 · 24h · equity","effectiveSample":45,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"agent_verdict_awm2","horizon_tier":"24h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":57.78,"base_rate_pct":51.2,"recall_pct":0.43,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0.17,"quiet_windows":40374,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":1,"lead_median_hours":17.69,"claim_family":"directional","reason":"lift is not distinguishable from zero (+6.58pp, Wilson95 floor -7.9pp, n_eff=45)","verdict":{"grade":"indistinguishable_from_chance","label":"Indistinguishable from chance","probabilityOfSkill":0.8095518870967777,"reason":"57.8% of 45 warnings came true, against a 51.2% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Indistinguishable from chance (probability the edge is real: 0.81)."}},{"stratum":"agent_verdict_awm2 · 24h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"agent_verdict_awm2","horizon_tier":"24h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0.68,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0.19,"quiet_windows":18901,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":1,"lead_median_hours":17.69,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for agent_verdict_awm2: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"anomaly · 2h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"anomaly","horizon_tier":"2h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":325984,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for anomaly: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"anomaly · 2h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"anomaly","horizon_tier":"2h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":366334,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for anomaly: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"canonical_verdict · 72h · crypto","effectiveSample":10140,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"canonical_verdict","horizon_tier":"72h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":55.09,"base_rate_pct":56.71,"recall_pct":33.92,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":26.31,"quiet_windows":97130,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":287,"lead_median_hours":48.13,"claim_family":"directional","reason":"precision does not beat its own base rate (55.09 vs 56.71)","verdict":{"grade":"worse_than_chance","label":"Worse than chance","probabilityOfSkill":0.00050675344458051,"reason":"55.1% of 10,140 warnings came true, against a 56.7% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Worse than chance (probability the edge is real: 0.00)."}},{"stratum":"canonical_verdict · 72h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"canonical_verdict","horizon_tier":"72h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":null,"quiet_windows":null,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for canonical_verdict: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"canonical_verdict · 72h · equity","effectiveSample":88,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"canonical_verdict","horizon_tier":"72h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":67.59,"base_rate_pct":51.71,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0.15,"quiet_windows":123812,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":"directional","reason":"no lead time (warned_events=0)","verdict":{"grade":"beats_chance","label":"Beats chance","probabilityOfSkill":0.998652377075593,"reason":"67.6% of 88 warnings came true, against a 51.7% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Beats chance (probability the edge is real: 1.00)."}},{"stratum":"canonical_verdict · 72h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"canonical_verdict","horizon_tier":"72h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0.08,"quiet_windows":101655,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for canonical_verdict: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"canonical_verdict_awm2 · 72h · crypto","effectiveSample":976,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"canonical_verdict_awm2","horizon_tier":"72h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":52.84,"base_rate_pct":56.05,"recall_pct":21.74,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":33.63,"quiet_windows":113,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":15,"lead_median_hours":62.48,"claim_family":"directional","reason":"precision does not beat its own base rate (52.84 vs 56.05)","verdict":{"grade":"worse_than_chance","label":"Worse than chance","probabilityOfSkill":0.022101984786197293,"reason":"52.8% of 976 warnings came true, against a 56.0% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Worse than chance (probability the edge is real: 0.02)."}},{"stratum":"canonical_verdict_awm2 · 72h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"canonical_verdict_awm2","horizon_tier":"72h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":227203,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for canonical_verdict_awm2: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"canonical_verdict_awm2 · 72h · equity","effectiveSample":49,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"canonical_verdict_awm2","horizon_tier":"72h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":73.77,"base_rate_pct":51.71,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0.3,"quiet_windows":28099,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":"directional","reason":"no lead time (warned_events=0)","verdict":{"grade":"beats_chance","label":"Beats chance","probabilityOfSkill":0.9991119062496889,"reason":"73.8% of 49 warnings came true, against a 51.7% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Beats chance (probability the edge is real: 1.00)."}},{"stratum":"canonical_verdict_awm2 · 72h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"canonical_verdict_awm2","horizon_tier":"72h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":7657,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for canonical_verdict_awm2: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"capital_flow_60m · 2h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"capital_flow_60m","horizon_tier":"2h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":325984,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for capital_flow_60m: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"capital_flow_60m · 2h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"capital_flow_60m","horizon_tier":"2h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":366334,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for capital_flow_60m: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"cascade_engine · 8h · crypto","effectiveSample":42,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"cascade_engine","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":57.14,"base_rate_pct":50.95,"recall_pct":0.09,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0.02,"quiet_windows":138335,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":2,"lead_median_hours":2.98,"claim_family":"directional","reason":"lift is not distinguishable from zero (+6.19pp, Wilson95 floor -8.75pp, n_eff=42)","verdict":{"grade":"indistinguishable_from_chance","label":"Indistinguishable from chance","probabilityOfSkill":0.7866911529597951,"reason":"57.1% of 42 warnings came true, against a 51.0% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Indistinguishable from chance (probability the edge is real: 0.79)."}},{"stratum":"cascade_engine · 8h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"cascade_engine","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0.06,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0.02,"quiet_windows":89829,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":1,"lead_median_hours":2.98,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for cascade_engine: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"cascade_engine · 8h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"cascade_engine","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":158340,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for cascade_engine: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"causality_engine · 8h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"causality_engine","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":320895,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for causality_engine: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"causality_engine · 8h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"causality_engine","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":357822,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for causality_engine: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"committee_verdict · 24h · crypto","effectiveSample":13838,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"committee_verdict","horizon_tier":"24h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":53.89,"base_rate_pct":54.97,"recall_pct":21.59,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":15.82,"quiet_windows":134143,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":272,"lead_median_hours":17.41,"claim_family":"directional","reason":"precision does not beat its own base rate (53.89 vs 54.97)","verdict":{"grade":"worse_than_chance","label":"Worse than chance","probabilityOfSkill":0.00536843911304552,"reason":"53.9% of 13,838 warnings came true, against a 55.0% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Worse than chance (probability the edge is real: 0.01)."}},{"stratum":"committee_verdict · 24h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"committee_verdict","horizon_tier":"24h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":null,"quiet_windows":null,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for committee_verdict: neither a non-directional population for the magnitude gate, nor enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"committee_verdict · 24h · equity","effectiveSample":179,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"committee_verdict","horizon_tier":"24h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":55.86,"base_rate_pct":50.76,"recall_pct":0.29,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0.29,"quiet_windows":100423,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":3,"lead_median_hours":3.86,"claim_family":"directional","reason":"lift is not distinguishable from zero (+5.1pp, Wilson95 floor -2.22pp, n_eff=179)","verdict":{"grade":"likely_beats_chance","label":"Likely beats chance","probabilityOfSkill":0.9135625448243349,"reason":"55.9% of 179 warnings came true, against a 50.8% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Likely beats chance (probability the edge is real: 0.91)."}},{"stratum":"committee_verdict · 24h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"committee_verdict","horizon_tier":"24h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":null,"quiet_windows":null,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for committee_verdict: neither a non-directional population for the magnitude gate, nor enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"committee_verdict_awm2 · 24h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"committee_verdict_awm2","horizon_tier":"24h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0.03,"quiet_windows":45932,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for committee_verdict_awm2: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"contagion_directional · 8h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"contagion_directional","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":null,"quiet_windows":null,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for contagion_directional: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"contagion_directional · 8h · equity","effectiveSample":224,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"contagion_directional","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":21.38,"base_rate_pct":16.62,"recall_pct":0.25,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0.25,"quiet_windows":66285,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":2,"lead_median_hours":3.98,"claim_family":"magnitude","reason":"lift is not distinguishable from zero (+4.76pp, Wilson95 floor -0.1pp, n_eff=224)","verdict":{"grade":"likely_beats_chance","label":"Likely beats chance","probabilityOfSkill":0.9646764266889823,"reason":"21.4% of 224 warnings came true, against a 16.6% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Likely beats chance (probability the edge is real: 0.96)."}},{"stratum":"contagion_directional · 8h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"contagion_directional","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":null,"quiet_windows":null,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for contagion_directional: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"correlated_surge · 8h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"correlated_surge","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":320895,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for correlated_surge: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"correlated_surge · 8h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"correlated_surge","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":357822,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for correlated_surge: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"correlation · 48h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"correlation","horizon_tier":"48h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":278217,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for correlation: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"correlation · 48h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"correlation","horizon_tier":"48h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":333178,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for correlation: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"correlation_regime · 24h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"correlation_regime","horizon_tier":"24h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":285,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for correlation_regime: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"correlation_regime · 24h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"correlation_regime","horizon_tier":"24h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":null,"quiet_windows":0,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for correlation_regime: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"crash_predictor · 2h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"crash_predictor","horizon_tier":"2h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":1.25,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":null,"quiet_windows":null,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":56,"lead_median_hours":1.45,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for crash_predictor: neither a non-directional population for the magnitude gate, nor enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"crash_predictor · 2h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"crash_predictor","horizon_tier":"2h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":null,"quiet_windows":null,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for crash_predictor: neither a non-directional population for the magnitude gate, nor enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"cross_asset_rotation · 24h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"cross_asset_rotation","horizon_tier":"24h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":299580,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for cross_asset_rotation: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"cross_asset_rotation · 24h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"cross_asset_rotation","horizon_tier":"24h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":345380,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for cross_asset_rotation: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"cross_asset_structure · 24h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"cross_asset_structure","horizon_tier":"24h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":299580,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for cross_asset_structure: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"cross_asset_structure · 24h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"cross_asset_structure","horizon_tier":"24h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":345380,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for cross_asset_structure: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"dark_pool · 8h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"dark_pool","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":320895,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for dark_pool: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"dark_pool · 8h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"dark_pool","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":357822,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for dark_pool: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"decline_volume_surge · 8h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"decline_volume_surge","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":320895,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for decline_volume_surge: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"decline_volume_surge · 8h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"decline_volume_surge","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":357822,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for decline_volume_surge: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"down_up_volume_ratio · 8h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"down_up_volume_ratio","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":320895,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for down_up_volume_ratio: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"down_up_volume_ratio · 8h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"down_up_volume_ratio","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":357822,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for down_up_volume_ratio: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"early_warning · 48h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"early_warning","horizon_tier":"48h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":278217,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for early_warning: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"early_warning · 48h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"early_warning","horizon_tier":"48h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":333178,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for early_warning: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"early_warning_24h · 24h · crypto","effectiveSample":27157,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"early_warning_24h","horizon_tier":"24h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":30.13,"base_rate_pct":33.31,"recall_pct":34.71,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":27.58,"quiet_windows":122531,"base_kind":"symbol_matched","warned_events":420,"lead_median_hours":21.13,"claim_family":"event_detection","reason":"precision does not beat its own base rate (30.13 vs 33.31)","verdict":{"grade":"worse_than_chance","label":"Worse than chance","probabilityOfSkill":0,"reason":"30.1% of 27,157 warnings came true, against a 33.3% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Worse than chance (probability the edge is real: 0.00)."}},{"stratum":"early_warning_24h · 24h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"early_warning_24h","horizon_tier":"24h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":1.19,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":null,"quiet_windows":null,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":25,"lead_median_hours":18.39,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for early_warning_24h: neither a non-directional population for the magnitude gate, nor enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"early_warning_24h · 24h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"early_warning_24h","horizon_tier":"24h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":146998,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for early_warning_24h: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"early_warning_24h_up · 24h · crypto","effectiveSample":7371,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"early_warning_24h_up","horizon_tier":"24h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":42.35,"base_rate_pct":36.25,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":106210,"base_kind":"symbol_matched","warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":"event_detection","reason":"no lead time (warned_events=0)","verdict":{"grade":"beats_chance","label":"Beats chance","probabilityOfSkill":1,"reason":"42.4% of 7,371 warnings came true, against a 36.3% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Beats chance (probability the edge is real: 1.00)."}},{"stratum":"early_warning_24h_up · 24h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"early_warning_24h_up","horizon_tier":"24h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":null,"quiet_windows":null,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for early_warning_24h_up: truth condition pump_5pct_v1 has direction 'up'; this base measures downside drawdown only","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"early_warning_24h_up · 24h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"early_warning_24h_up","horizon_tier":"24h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":128739,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for early_warning_24h_up: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"early_warning_6h · 8h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"early_warning_6h","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0.55,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":null,"quiet_windows":null,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":17,"lead_median_hours":3.62,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for early_warning_6h: neither a non-directional population for the magnitude gate, nor enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"early_warning_6h · 8h · equity","effectiveSample":374,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"early_warning_6h","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":7.05,"base_rate_pct":6.52,"recall_pct":0.14,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0.17,"quiet_windows":161057,"base_kind":"symbol_matched","warned_events":3,"lead_median_hours":0.28,"claim_family":"event_detection","reason":"lift is not distinguishable from zero (+0.53pp, Wilson95 floor -1.65pp, n_eff=374)","verdict":{"grade":"indistinguishable_from_chance","label":"Indistinguishable from chance","probabilityOfSkill":0.6370842827584293,"reason":"7.0% of 374 warnings came true, against a 6.5% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Indistinguishable from chance (probability the edge is real: 0.64)."}},{"stratum":"early_warning_6h · 8h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"early_warning_6h","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0.03,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":null,"quiet_windows":null,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":1,"lead_median_hours":0.28,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for early_warning_6h: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"early_warning_6h_up · 8h · crypto","effectiveSample":11132,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"early_warning_6h_up","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":11.06,"base_rate_pct":7.6,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":114859,"base_kind":"symbol_matched","warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":"event_detection","reason":"no lead time (warned_events=0)","verdict":{"grade":"beats_chance","label":"Beats chance","probabilityOfSkill":1,"reason":"11.1% of 11,132 warnings came true, against a 7.6% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Beats chance (probability the edge is real: 1.00)."}},{"stratum":"early_warning_6h_up · 8h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"early_warning_6h_up","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":null,"quiet_windows":null,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for early_warning_6h_up: truth condition pump_5pct_v1 has direction 'up'; this base measures downside drawdown only","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"early_warning_6h_up · 8h · equity","effectiveSample":423,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"early_warning_6h_up","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":2.36,"base_rate_pct":5.61,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":134819,"base_kind":"symbol_matched","warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":"event_detection","reason":"no lead time (warned_events=0)","verdict":{"grade":"worse_than_chance","label":"Worse than chance","probabilityOfSkill":0.00040649911305123965,"reason":"2.4% of 423 warnings came true, against a 5.6% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Worse than chance (probability the edge is real: 0.00)."}},{"stratum":"early_warning_6h_up · 8h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"early_warning_6h_up","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":null,"quiet_windows":null,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for early_warning_6h_up: truth condition pump_5pct_v1 has direction 'up'; this base measures downside drawdown only","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"early_warning_72h · 72h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"early_warning_72h","horizon_tier":"72h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0.06,"quiet_windows":19579,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for early_warning_72h: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"early_warning_72h · 72h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"early_warning_72h","horizon_tier":"72h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":23122,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for early_warning_72h: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"early_warning_72h_up · 72h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"early_warning_72h_up","horizon_tier":"72h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":258479,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for early_warning_72h_up: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"early_warning_72h_up · 72h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"early_warning_72h_up","horizon_tier":"72h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":323754,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for early_warning_72h_up: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"early_warning_synthesis · 48h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"early_warning_synthesis","horizon_tier":"48h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":278217,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for early_warning_synthesis: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"early_warning_synthesis · 48h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"early_warning_synthesis","horizon_tier":"48h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":333178,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for early_warning_synthesis: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"early_warning_synthesis_awm2 · 48h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"early_warning_synthesis_awm2","horizon_tier":"48h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":278217,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for early_warning_synthesis_awm2: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"early_warning_synthesis_awm2 · 48h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"early_warning_synthesis_awm2","horizon_tier":"48h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":333178,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for early_warning_synthesis_awm2: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"etf_inflow · 8h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"etf_inflow","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":320895,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for etf_inflow: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"etf_inflow · 8h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"etf_inflow","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":357822,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for etf_inflow: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"fall_warning_8h · 8h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"fall_warning_8h","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":316872,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for fall_warning_8h: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"fall_warning_8h · 8h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"fall_warning_8h","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":353416,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for fall_warning_8h: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"flash_crash_detected · 2h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"flash_crash_detected","horizon_tier":"2h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0.56,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0.71,"quiet_windows":146707,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":16,"lead_median_hours":1.55,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for flash_crash_detected: truth condition flash_crash_v1 bounds the event to 900s and this base cannot express a duration bound; scoring it against a base that counts slow declines would inflate the lift","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"flash_crash_detected · 2h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"flash_crash_detected","horizon_tier":"2h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0.44,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0.15,"quiet_windows":172644,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":15,"lead_median_hours":0.76,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for flash_crash_detected: truth condition flash_crash_v1 bounds the event to 900s and this base cannot express a duration bound; scoring it against a base that counts slow declines would inflate the lift","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"flash_crash_precursor · 2h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"flash_crash_precursor","horizon_tier":"2h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":324535,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for flash_crash_precursor: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"flash_crash_precursor · 2h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"flash_crash_precursor","horizon_tier":"2h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":363311,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for flash_crash_precursor: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"forecast_72h · 72h · crypto","effectiveSample":3760,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"forecast_72h","horizon_tier":"72h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":51.08,"base_rate_pct":54.22,"recall_pct":17.89,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":13.57,"quiet_windows":93061,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":134,"lead_median_hours":58.45,"claim_family":"directional","reason":"precision does not beat its own base rate (51.08 vs 54.22)","verdict":{"grade":"worse_than_chance","label":"Worse than chance","probabilityOfSkill":0.000057272211435255294,"reason":"51.1% of 3,760 warnings came true, against a 54.2% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Worse than chance (probability the edge is real: 0.00)."}},{"stratum":"forecast_72h · 72h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"forecast_72h","horizon_tier":"72h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":null,"quiet_windows":null,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for forecast_72h: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"forecast_72h · 72h · equity","effectiveSample":78,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"forecast_72h","horizon_tier":"72h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":57.83,"base_rate_pct":51.68,"recall_pct":0.51,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0.14,"quiet_windows":93810,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":4,"lead_median_hours":20.1,"claim_family":"directional","reason":"lift is not distinguishable from zero (+6.15pp, Wilson95 floor -4.92pp, n_eff=78)","verdict":{"grade":"indistinguishable_from_chance","label":"Indistinguishable from chance","probabilityOfSkill":0.8608632731145504,"reason":"57.8% of 78 warnings came true, against a 51.7% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Indistinguishable from chance (probability the edge is real: 0.86)."}},{"stratum":"forecast_72h · 72h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"forecast_72h","horizon_tier":"72h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":72554,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for forecast_72h: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"forecast_72h_awm2 · 72h · crypto","effectiveSample":863,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"forecast_72h_awm2","horizon_tier":"72h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":53.81,"base_rate_pct":53.65,"recall_pct":33,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":21.1,"quiet_windows":4933,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":33,"lead_median_hours":68.51,"claim_family":"directional","reason":"lift is not distinguishable from zero (+0.16pp, Wilson95 floor -3.18pp, n_eff=863)","verdict":{"grade":"indistinguishable_from_chance","label":"Indistinguishable from chance","probabilityOfSkill":0.5381845096382754,"reason":"53.8% of 863 warnings came true, against a 53.6% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Indistinguishable from chance (probability the edge is real: 0.54)."}},{"stratum":"forecast_72h_awm2 · 72h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"forecast_72h_awm2","horizon_tier":"72h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":221825,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for forecast_72h_awm2: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"forecast_72h_awm2 · 72h · equity","effectiveSample":63,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"forecast_72h_awm2","horizon_tier":"72h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":54.55,"base_rate_pct":51.68,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0.43,"quiet_windows":7657,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":"directional","reason":"no lead time (warned_events=0)","verdict":{"grade":"indistinguishable_from_chance","label":"Indistinguishable from chance","probabilityOfSkill":0.6754017652640442,"reason":"54.5% of 63 warnings came true, against a 51.7% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Indistinguishable from chance (probability the edge is real: 0.68)."}},{"stratum":"forecast_72h_awm2 · 72h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"forecast_72h_awm2","horizon_tier":"72h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":null,"quiet_windows":0,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for forecast_72h_awm2: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"funding_measured · 48h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"funding_measured","horizon_tier":"48h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":278217,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for funding_measured: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"funding_measured · 48h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"funding_measured","horizon_tier":"48h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":333178,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for funding_measured: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"funding_proxy · 8h · crypto","effectiveSample":11696,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"funding_proxy","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":18.2,"base_rate_pct":6.83,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":145307,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":"magnitude","reason":"no lead time (warned_events=0)","verdict":{"grade":"beats_chance","label":"Beats chance","probabilityOfSkill":1,"reason":"18.2% of 11,696 warnings came true, against a 6.8% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Beats chance (probability the edge is real: 1.00)."}},{"stratum":"funding_proxy · 8h · equity","effectiveSample":2228,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"funding_proxy","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":26.53,"base_rate_pct":6.11,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":170471,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":"magnitude","reason":"no lead time (warned_events=0)","verdict":{"grade":"beats_chance","label":"Beats chance","probabilityOfSkill":1,"reason":"26.5% of 2,228 warnings came true, against a 6.1% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Beats chance (probability the edge is real: 1.00)."}},{"stratum":"funding_stress · 48h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"funding_stress","horizon_tier":"48h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":278217,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for funding_stress: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"funding_stress · 48h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"funding_stress","horizon_tier":"48h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":333178,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for funding_stress: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"hidden_liquidity · 2h · crypto","effectiveSample":3736,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"hidden_liquidity","horizon_tier":"2h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":5.11,"base_rate_pct":6.59,"recall_pct":1.36,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":1.24,"quiet_windows":39468,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":5,"lead_median_hours":0.68,"claim_family":"magnitude","reason":"precision does not beat its own base rate (5.11 vs 6.59)","verdict":{"grade":"worse_than_chance","label":"Worse than chance","probabilityOfSkill":0.00007027234162459983,"reason":"5.1% of 3,736 warnings came true, against a 6.6% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Worse than chance (probability the edge is real: 0.00)."}},{"stratum":"hidden_liquidity · 2h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"hidden_liquidity","horizon_tier":"2h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":285656,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for hidden_liquidity: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"hidden_liquidity · 2h · equity","effectiveSample":169,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"hidden_liquidity","horizon_tier":"2h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":1.93,"base_rate_pct":4.27,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0.03,"quiet_windows":42184,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":"magnitude","reason":"no lead time (warned_events=0)","verdict":{"grade":"likely_worse_than_chance","label":"Likely worse than chance","probabilityOfSkill":0.03355998937099336,"reason":"1.9% of 169 warnings came true, against a 4.3% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Likely worse than chance (probability the edge is real: 0.03)."}},{"stratum":"hidden_liquidity · 2h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"hidden_liquidity","horizon_tier":"2h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":318008,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for hidden_liquidity: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"hidden_size_proxy · 8h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"hidden_size_proxy","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":320895,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for hidden_size_proxy: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"hidden_size_proxy · 8h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"hidden_size_proxy","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":357822,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for hidden_size_proxy: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"large_print · 8h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"large_print","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":320895,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for large_print: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"large_print · 8h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"large_print","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":357822,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for large_print: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"learned_fall_risk · 8h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"learned_fall_risk","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":281533,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for learned_fall_risk: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"learned_fall_risk · 8h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"learned_fall_risk","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":39434,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for learned_fall_risk: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"leverage · 48h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"leverage","horizon_tier":"48h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":278217,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for leverage: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"leverage · 48h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"leverage","horizon_tier":"48h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":333178,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for leverage: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"leverage_measured · 48h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"leverage_measured","horizon_tier":"48h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":278217,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for leverage_measured: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"leverage_measured · 48h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"leverage_measured","horizon_tier":"48h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":333178,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for leverage_measured: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"leverage_proxy · 48h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"leverage_proxy","horizon_tier":"48h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":278217,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for leverage_proxy: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"leverage_proxy · 48h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"leverage_proxy","horizon_tier":"48h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":333178,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for leverage_proxy: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"market_depth_orderbook · 2h · crypto","effectiveSample":777,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"market_depth_orderbook","horizon_tier":"2h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":4.36,"base_rate_pct":7.61,"recall_pct":2.61,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0.53,"quiet_windows":39329,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":8,"lead_median_hours":1.16,"claim_family":"magnitude","reason":"precision does not beat its own base rate (4.36 vs 7.61)","verdict":{"grade":"worse_than_chance","label":"Worse than chance","probabilityOfSkill":0.00009284295575229251,"reason":"4.4% of 777 warnings came true, against a 7.6% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Worse than chance (probability the edge is real: 0.00)."}},{"stratum":"market_depth_orderbook · 2h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"market_depth_orderbook","horizon_tier":"2h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":284152,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for market_depth_orderbook: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"market_depth_orderbook · 2h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"market_depth_orderbook","horizon_tier":"2h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":41682,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for market_depth_orderbook: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"market_regime · 48h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"market_regime","horizon_tier":"48h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":278217,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for market_regime: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"market_regime · 48h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"market_regime","horizon_tier":"48h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":333178,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for market_regime: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"market_regime_flip · 48h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"market_regime_flip","horizon_tier":"48h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":278217,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for market_regime_flip: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"market_regime_flip · 48h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"market_regime_flip","horizon_tier":"48h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":333178,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for market_regime_flip: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"meta_pattern · 24h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"meta_pattern","horizon_tier":"24h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":299580,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for meta_pattern: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"meta_pattern · 24h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"meta_pattern","horizon_tier":"24h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":345380,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for meta_pattern: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"microstructure · 8h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"microstructure","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":320895,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for microstructure: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"microstructure · 8h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"microstructure","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":357822,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for microstructure: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"ml_ensemble · 2h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"ml_ensemble","horizon_tier":"2h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":325984,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for ml_ensemble: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"ml_ensemble · 2h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"ml_ensemble","horizon_tier":"2h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":366334,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for ml_ensemble: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"momentum · 2h · equity","effectiveSample":28709,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"momentum","horizon_tier":"2h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":50.18,"base_rate_pct":50.04,"recall_pct":1.33,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":2.88,"quiet_windows":174343,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":52,"lead_median_hours":0.4,"claim_family":"directional","reason":"lift is not distinguishable from zero (+0.14pp, Wilson95 floor -0.44pp, n_eff=28709)","verdict":{"grade":"indistinguishable_from_chance","label":"Indistinguishable from chance","probabilityOfSkill":0.6823993465522524,"reason":"50.2% of 28,709 warnings came true, against a 50.0% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Indistinguishable from chance (probability the edge is real: 0.68)."}},{"stratum":"ofi · 8h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"ofi","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":320895,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for ofi: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"ofi · 8h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"ofi","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":357822,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for ofi: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"ofi_candle_proxy · 8h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"ofi_candle_proxy","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":280267,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for ofi_candle_proxy: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"ofi_candle_proxy · 8h · equity","effectiveSample":126,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"ofi_candle_proxy","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":1.57,"base_rate_pct":4.28,"recall_pct":0.21,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0.19,"quiet_windows":40387,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":1,"lead_median_hours":1.16,"claim_family":"magnitude","reason":"precision does not beat its own base rate (1.57 vs 4.28)","verdict":{"grade":"likely_worse_than_chance","label":"Likely worse than chance","probabilityOfSkill":0.028352371136665888,"reason":"1.6% of 126 warnings came true, against a 4.3% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Likely worse than chance (probability the edge is real: 0.03)."}},{"stratum":"ofi_candle_proxy · 8h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"ofi_candle_proxy","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":1889,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for ofi_candle_proxy: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"ofi_measured · 8h · crypto","effectiveSample":385,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"ofi_measured","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":51.89,"base_rate_pct":51.51,"recall_pct":1.14,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0.53,"quiet_windows":42851,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":3,"lead_median_hours":3.31,"claim_family":"directional","reason":"lift is not distinguishable from zero (+0.38pp, Wilson95 floor -4.6pp, n_eff=385)","verdict":{"grade":"indistinguishable_from_chance","label":"Indistinguishable from chance","probabilityOfSkill":0.5596183858973478,"reason":"51.9% of 385 warnings came true, against a 51.5% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Indistinguishable from chance (probability the edge is real: 0.56)."}},{"stratum":"ofi_measured · 8h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"ofi_measured","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":276684,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for ofi_measured: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"ofi_measured · 8h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"ofi_measured","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":46168,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for ofi_measured: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"oracle_dir_1h · 2h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"oracle_dir_1h","horizon_tier":"2h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":325984,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for oracle_dir_1h: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"oracle_dir_1h · 2h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"oracle_dir_1h","horizon_tier":"2h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":366334,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for oracle_dir_1h: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"oracle_dir_24h · 24h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"oracle_dir_24h","horizon_tier":"24h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":299580,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for oracle_dir_24h: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"oracle_dir_24h · 24h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"oracle_dir_24h","horizon_tier":"24h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":345380,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for oracle_dir_24h: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"oracle_dir_6h · 8h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"oracle_dir_6h","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":319870,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for oracle_dir_6h: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"oracle_dir_6h · 8h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"oracle_dir_6h","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":356955,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for oracle_dir_6h: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"oracle_fall_24h · 24h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"oracle_fall_24h","horizon_tier":"24h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":299580,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for oracle_fall_24h: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"oracle_fall_24h · 24h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"oracle_fall_24h","horizon_tier":"24h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":345380,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for oracle_fall_24h: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"oracle_fall_2h · 2h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"oracle_fall_2h","horizon_tier":"2h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":324535,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for oracle_fall_2h: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"oracle_fall_2h · 2h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"oracle_fall_2h","horizon_tier":"2h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":363311,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for oracle_fall_2h: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"oracle_fall_6h · 8h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"oracle_fall_6h","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":319870,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for oracle_fall_6h: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"oracle_fall_6h · 8h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"oracle_fall_6h","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":356955,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for oracle_fall_6h: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"pattern · 2h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"pattern","horizon_tier":"2h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":325984,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for pattern: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"pattern · 2h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"pattern","horizon_tier":"2h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":366334,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for pattern: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"rising_volume_flat_price · 8h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"rising_volume_flat_price","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":320895,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for rising_volume_flat_price: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"rising_volume_flat_price · 8h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"rising_volume_flat_price","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":357822,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for rising_volume_flat_price: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"risk_intelligence · 48h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"risk_intelligence","horizon_tier":"48h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":278217,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for risk_intelligence: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"risk_intelligence · 48h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"risk_intelligence","horizon_tier":"48h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":333178,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for risk_intelligence: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"risk_intelligence_72h · 24h · crypto","effectiveSample":10564,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"risk_intelligence_72h","horizon_tier":"24h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":12.65,"base_rate_pct":12.9,"recall_pct":19.27,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":19.74,"quiet_windows":141289,"base_kind":"symbol_matched","warned_events":307,"lead_median_hours":6.85,"claim_family":"event_detection","reason":"precision does not beat its own base rate (12.65 vs 12.9)","verdict":{"grade":"indistinguishable_from_chance","label":"Indistinguishable from chance","probabilityOfSkill":0.21890970976771362,"reason":"12.7% of 10,564 warnings came true, against a 12.9% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Indistinguishable from chance (probability the edge is real: 0.22)."}},{"stratum":"risk_intelligence_72h · 24h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"risk_intelligence_72h","horizon_tier":"24h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0.01,"quiet_windows":165363,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for risk_intelligence_72h: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"risk_intelligence_72h · 8h · crypto","effectiveSample":10564,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"risk_intelligence_72h","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":12.65,"base_rate_pct":12.9,"recall_pct":10.9,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":11.07,"quiet_windows":144910,"base_kind":"symbol_matched","warned_events":214,"lead_median_hours":3.02,"claim_family":"event_detection","reason":"precision does not beat its own base rate (12.65 vs 12.9)","verdict":{"grade":"indistinguishable_from_chance","label":"Indistinguishable from chance","probabilityOfSkill":0.21890970976771362,"reason":"12.7% of 10,564 warnings came true, against a 12.9% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Indistinguishable from chance (probability the edge is real: 0.22)."}},{"stratum":"risk_intelligence_72h · 8h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"risk_intelligence_72h","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0.01,"quiet_windows":169756,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for risk_intelligence_72h: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"risk_intelligence_liquidation · 8h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"risk_intelligence_liquidation","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":320895,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for risk_intelligence_liquidation: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"risk_intelligence_liquidation · 8h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"risk_intelligence_liquidation","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":357822,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for risk_intelligence_liquidation: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"risk_intelligence_measured · 48h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"risk_intelligence_measured","horizon_tier":"48h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":278217,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for risk_intelligence_measured: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"risk_intelligence_measured · 48h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"risk_intelligence_measured","horizon_tier":"48h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":333178,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for risk_intelligence_measured: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"risk_intelligence_news · 8h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"risk_intelligence_news","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":320895,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for risk_intelligence_news: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"risk_intelligence_news · 8h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"risk_intelligence_news","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":357822,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for risk_intelligence_news: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"sentiment · 8h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"sentiment","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":320895,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for sentiment: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"sentiment · 8h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"sentiment","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":357822,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for sentiment: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"sentiment_news · 8h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"sentiment_news","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":320895,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for sentiment_news: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"sentiment_news · 8h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"sentiment_news","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":357822,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for sentiment_news: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"stablecoin · 48h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"stablecoin","horizon_tier":"48h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":278217,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for stablecoin: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"stablecoin · 48h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"stablecoin","horizon_tier":"48h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":333178,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for stablecoin: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"state_vote_verdict · 24h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"state_vote_verdict","horizon_tier":"24h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":756,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for state_vote_verdict: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"state_vote_verdict · 24h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"state_vote_verdict","horizon_tier":"24h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":296481,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for state_vote_verdict: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"ta_hawkes_jump · 8h · crypto","effectiveSample":100,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"ta_hawkes_jump","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":29,"base_rate_pct":7.2,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0.24,"quiet_windows":37484,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":"magnitude","reason":"no lead time (warned_events=0)","verdict":{"grade":"beats_chance","label":"Beats chance","probabilityOfSkill":0.9999999999436536,"reason":"29.0% of 100 warnings came true, against a 7.2% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Beats chance (probability the edge is real: 1.00)."}},{"stratum":"ta_hawkes_jump · 8h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"ta_hawkes_jump","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":276439,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for ta_hawkes_jump: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"ta_hawkes_jump · 8h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"ta_hawkes_jump","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":39434,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for ta_hawkes_jump: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"tail_dependence · 48h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"tail_dependence","horizon_tier":"48h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":278217,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for tail_dependence: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"tail_dependence · 48h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"tail_dependence","horizon_tier":"48h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":333178,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for tail_dependence: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"ta_kalman_momentum · 8h · crypto","effectiveSample":110,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"ta_kalman_momentum","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":59.09,"base_rate_pct":52.76,"recall_pct":1.31,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0.26,"quiet_windows":38936,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":3,"lead_median_hours":6.92,"claim_family":"directional","reason":"lift is not distinguishable from zero (+6.33pp, Wilson95 floor -3.01pp, n_eff=110)","verdict":{"grade":"likely_beats_chance","label":"Likely beats chance","probabilityOfSkill":0.9084362026599774,"reason":"59.1% of 110 warnings came true, against a 52.8% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Likely beats chance (probability the edge is real: 0.91)."}},{"stratum":"ta_kalman_momentum · 8h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"ta_kalman_momentum","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0.41,"quiet_windows":4345,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for ta_kalman_momentum: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"ta_kalman_momentum · 8h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"ta_kalman_momentum","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":39434,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for ta_kalman_momentum: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"ta_mean_reversion · 8h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"ta_mean_reversion","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":276439,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for ta_mean_reversion: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"ta_mean_reversion · 8h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"ta_mean_reversion","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":39434,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for ta_mean_reversion: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"ta_topology_regime · 8h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"ta_topology_regime","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":276439,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for ta_topology_regime: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"ta_topology_regime · 8h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"ta_topology_regime","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":39434,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for ta_topology_regime: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"ta_transport_shift · 8h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"ta_transport_shift","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":276439,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for ta_transport_shift: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"ta_transport_shift · 8h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"ta_transport_shift","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":39434,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for ta_transport_shift: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"temporal_arbitrage · 24h · crypto","effectiveSample":74,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"temporal_arbitrage","horizon_tier":"24h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":0,"base_rate_pct":0,"recall_pct":0.08,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0.08,"quiet_windows":123285,"base_kind":"symbol_matched","warned_events":1,"lead_median_hours":21.09,"claim_family":"event_detection","reason":"precision does not beat its own base rate (0.0 vs 0.0)","verdict":{"grade":"indistinguishable_from_chance","label":"Indistinguishable from chance","probabilityOfSkill":0.5,"reason":"No usable base rate for this claim (0.0%), so the record cannot be set against chance."}},{"stratum":"temporal_arbitrage · 24h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"temporal_arbitrage","horizon_tier":"24h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0.05,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":null,"quiet_windows":null,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":1,"lead_median_hours":21.09,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for temporal_arbitrage: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"temporal_arbitrage · 24h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"temporal_arbitrage","horizon_tier":"24h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":146998,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for temporal_arbitrage: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"tick_flow_imbalance · 8h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"tick_flow_imbalance","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":316872,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for tick_flow_imbalance: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"tick_flow_imbalance · 8h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"tick_flow_imbalance","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":353416,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for tick_flow_imbalance: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"tick_flow_imbalance_up · 8h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"tick_flow_imbalance_up","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":316872,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for tick_flow_imbalance_up: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"tick_flow_imbalance_up · 8h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"tick_flow_imbalance_up","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":353416,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for tick_flow_imbalance_up: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"tick_liquidation_cascade · 8h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"tick_liquidation_cascade","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":316872,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for tick_liquidation_cascade: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"tick_liquidation_cascade · 8h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"tick_liquidation_cascade","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":353416,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for tick_liquidation_cascade: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"tick_price_gap · 8h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"tick_price_gap","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":316872,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for tick_price_gap: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"tick_price_gap · 8h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"tick_price_gap","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":353416,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for tick_price_gap: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"tick_price_gap_up · 8h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"tick_price_gap_up","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":316872,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for tick_price_gap_up: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"tick_price_gap_up · 8h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"tick_price_gap_up","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":353416,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for tick_price_gap_up: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"tick_volume_burst · 8h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"tick_volume_burst","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":316872,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for tick_volume_burst: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"tick_volume_burst · 8h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"tick_volume_burst","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":353416,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for tick_volume_burst: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"tick_volume_burst_up · 8h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"tick_volume_burst_up","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":316872,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for tick_volume_burst_up: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"tick_volume_burst_up · 8h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"tick_volume_burst_up","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":353416,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for tick_volume_burst_up: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"volatility · 2h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"volatility","horizon_tier":"2h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":324535,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for volatility: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"volatility · 2h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"volatility","horizon_tier":"2h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":363311,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for volatility: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"volatility_iv_rv · 2h · crypto","effectiveSample":1,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"volatility_iv_rv","horizon_tier":"2h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":0,"base_rate_pct":7.34,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":41052,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":"magnitude","reason":"no lead time (warned_events=0)","verdict":{"grade":"indistinguishable_from_chance","label":"Indistinguishable from chance","probabilityOfSkill":0.18241003322433935,"reason":"0.0% of 1 warnings came true, against a 7.3% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Indistinguishable from chance (probability the edge is real: 0.18)."}},{"stratum":"volatility_iv_rv · 2h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"volatility_iv_rv","horizon_tier":"2h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":281097,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for volatility_iv_rv: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"volatility_iv_rv · 2h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"volatility_iv_rv","horizon_tier":"2h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":45499,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for volatility_iv_rv: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"volatility_realised · 2h · crypto","effectiveSample":202403,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"volatility_realised","horizon_tier":"2h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":5.51,"base_rate_pct":6.96,"recall_pct":40.52,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":49.34,"quiet_windows":112570,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":913,"lead_median_hours":1.14,"claim_family":"magnitude","reason":"precision does not beat its own base rate (5.51 vs 6.96)","verdict":{"grade":"worse_than_chance","label":"Worse than chance","probabilityOfSkill":0,"reason":"5.5% of 202,403 warnings came true, against a 7.0% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Worse than chance (probability the edge is real: 0.00)."}},{"stratum":"volatility_realised · 2h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"volatility_realised","horizon_tier":"2h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":null,"quiet_windows":null,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for volatility_realised: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"volatility_realised · 2h · equity","effectiveSample":50631,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"volatility_realised","horizon_tier":"2h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":4.07,"base_rate_pct":5.4,"recall_pct":8.51,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":8.88,"quiet_windows":135134,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":202,"lead_median_hours":0.85,"claim_family":"magnitude","reason":"precision does not beat its own base rate (4.07 vs 5.4)","verdict":{"grade":"worse_than_chance","label":"Worse than chance","probabilityOfSkill":0,"reason":"4.1% of 50,631 warnings came true, against a 5.4% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Worse than chance (probability the edge is real: 0.00)."}},{"stratum":"volatility_realised · 2h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"volatility_realised","horizon_tier":"2h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":null,"quiet_windows":null,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for volatility_realised: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"volatility_v2 · 2h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"volatility_v2","horizon_tier":"2h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0.73,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0.43,"quiet_windows":146709,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":21,"lead_median_hours":1.28,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for volatility_v2: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"volatility_v2 · 2h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"volatility_v2","horizon_tier":"2h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":172953,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for volatility_v2: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"volume_shock · 8h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"volume_shock","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":320895,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for volume_shock: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"volume_shock · 8h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"volume_shock","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":357822,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for volume_shock: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"wick_sweep · 8h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"wick_sweep","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":320895,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for wick_sweep: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"wick_sweep · 8h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"wick_sweep","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":357822,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for wick_sweep: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}}]},"strata":[{"stratum":"agent_verdict_awm2 · 24h · crypto","stratum_id":"agent_verdict_awm2 · 24h · crypto · directional","claim_family":"directional","engine":"agent_verdict_awm2","horizon_tier":"24h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":62.86,"base_rate_pct":54.97,"recall_pct":59.62,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":47.47,"quiet_windows":37298,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":124,"effective_sample":11685,"lead_median_hours":16.5,"headlineEligible":true,"verdict":{"grade":"beats_chance","label":"Beats chance","probabilityOfSkill":1,"reason":"62.9% of 11,685 warnings came true, against a 55.0% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Beats chance (probability the edge is real: 1.00)."}},{"stratum":"committee_verdict_awm2 · 24h · crypto","stratum_id":"committee_verdict_awm2 · 24h · crypto · directional","claim_family":"directional","engine":"committee_verdict_awm2","horizon_tier":"24h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":62.98,"base_rate_pct":54.97,"recall_pct":12.39,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":6.67,"quiet_windows":40544,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":28,"effective_sample":1797,"lead_median_hours":17.7,"headlineEligible":true,"verdict":{"grade":"beats_chance","label":"Beats chance","probabilityOfSkill":0.9999999999969363,"reason":"63.0% of 1,797 warnings came true, against a 55.0% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Beats chance (probability the edge is real: 1.00)."}},{"stratum":"contagion_directional · 8h · crypto","stratum_id":"contagion_directional · 8h · crypto · magnitude","claim_family":"magnitude","engine":"contagion_directional","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":16.03,"base_rate_pct":8.54,"recall_pct":1.76,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":1.65,"quiet_windows":96914,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":26,"effective_sample":2982,"lead_median_hours":4.19,"headlineEligible":true,"verdict":{"grade":"beats_chance","label":"Beats chance","probabilityOfSkill":1,"reason":"16.0% of 2,982 warnings came true, against a 8.5% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Beats chance (probability the edge is real: 1.00)."}},{"stratum":"crash_predictor · 2h · crypto","stratum_id":"crash_predictor · 2h · crypto · event_detection","claim_family":"event_detection","engine":"crash_predictor","horizon_tier":"2h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":49.66,"base_rate_pct":44.96,"recall_pct":22,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":22.16,"quiet_windows":146710,"base_kind":"symbol_matched","warned_events":632,"effective_sample":94520,"lead_median_hours":1.63,"headlineEligible":true,"verdict":{"grade":"beats_chance","label":"Beats chance","probabilityOfSkill":1,"reason":"49.7% of 94,520 warnings came true, against a 45.0% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Beats chance (probability the edge is real: 1.00)."}},{"stratum":"crash_predictor · 2h · equity","stratum_id":"crash_predictor · 2h · equity · event_detection","claim_family":"event_detection","engine":"crash_predictor","horizon_tier":"2h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":1.4,"base_rate_pct":0.74,"recall_pct":0.47,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0.96,"quiet_windows":173269,"base_kind":"symbol_matched","warned_events":16,"effective_sample":6543,"lead_median_hours":0.45,"headlineEligible":true,"verdict":{"grade":"beats_chance","label":"Beats chance","probabilityOfSkill":0.9999999817119933,"reason":"1.4% of 6,543 warnings came true, against a 0.7% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Beats chance (probability the edge is real: 1.00)."}},{"stratum":"early_warning_6h · 8h · crypto","stratum_id":"early_warning_6h · 8h · crypto · event_detection","claim_family":"event_detection","engine":"early_warning_6h","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":9.87,"base_rate_pct":5.36,"recall_pct":22.97,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":11.5,"quiet_windows":140481,"base_kind":"symbol_matched","warned_events":443,"effective_sample":23728,"lead_median_hours":3.95,"headlineEligible":true,"verdict":{"grade":"beats_chance","label":"Beats chance","probabilityOfSkill":1,"reason":"9.9% of 23,728 warnings came true, against a 5.4% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Beats chance (probability the edge is real: 1.00)."}},{"stratum":"learned_fall_risk · 8h · crypto","stratum_id":"learned_fall_risk · 8h · crypto · event_detection","claim_family":"event_detection","engine":"learned_fall_risk","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":33.74,"base_rate_pct":17.54,"recall_pct":28.22,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":8.21,"quiet_windows":33441,"base_kind":"symbol_matched","warned_events":57,"effective_sample":3156,"lead_median_hours":4.79,"headlineEligible":true,"verdict":{"grade":"beats_chance","label":"Beats chance","probabilityOfSkill":1,"reason":"33.7% of 3,156 warnings came true, against a 17.5% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Beats chance (probability the edge is real: 1.00)."}},{"stratum":"momentum · 2h · crypto","stratum_id":"momentum · 2h · crypto · directional","claim_family":"directional","engine":"momentum","horizon_tier":"2h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":49.35,"base_rate_pct":48.21,"recall_pct":27.11,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":12.01,"quiet_windows":147321,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":963,"effective_sample":121098,"lead_median_hours":0.44,"headlineEligible":true,"verdict":{"grade":"beats_chance","label":"Beats chance","probabilityOfSkill":0.999999999999999,"reason":"49.4% of 121,098 warnings came true, against a 48.2% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Beats chance (probability the edge is real: 1.00)."}},{"stratum":"ofi_candle_proxy · 8h · crypto","stratum_id":"ofi_candle_proxy · 8h · crypto · magnitude","claim_family":"magnitude","engine":"ofi_candle_proxy","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":15.06,"base_rate_pct":6.07,"recall_pct":1.21,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":1.01,"quiet_windows":38683,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":3,"effective_sample":867,"lead_median_hours":3.31,"headlineEligible":true,"verdict":{"grade":"beats_chance","label":"Beats chance","probabilityOfSkill":1,"reason":"15.1% of 867 warnings came true, against a 6.1% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Beats chance (probability the edge is real: 1.00)."}},{"stratum":"risk_intelligence_systemic · 8h · crypto","stratum_id":"risk_intelligence_systemic · 8h · crypto · magnitude","claim_family":"magnitude","engine":"risk_intelligence_systemic","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":17.48,"base_rate_pct":6.91,"recall_pct":5.88,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":6.47,"quiet_windows":145307,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":122,"effective_sample":13268,"lead_median_hours":2.2,"headlineEligible":true,"verdict":{"grade":"beats_chance","label":"Beats chance","probabilityOfSkill":1,"reason":"17.5% of 13,268 warnings came true, against a 6.9% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Beats chance (probability the edge is real: 1.00)."}},{"stratum":"risk_intelligence_systemic · 8h · equity","stratum_id":"risk_intelligence_systemic · 8h · equity · magnitude","claim_family":"magnitude","engine":"risk_intelligence_systemic","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":32.38,"base_rate_pct":10.84,"recall_pct":0.08,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0.21,"quiet_windows":170471,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":2,"effective_sample":978,"lead_median_hours":0.73,"headlineEligible":true,"verdict":{"grade":"beats_chance","label":"Beats chance","probabilityOfSkill":1,"reason":"32.4% of 978 warnings came true, against a 10.8% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Beats chance (probability the edge is real: 1.00)."}},{"stratum":"state_vote_verdict · 24h · crypto","stratum_id":"state_vote_verdict · 24h · crypto · directional","claim_family":"directional","engine":"state_vote_verdict","horizon_tier":"24h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":68.85,"base_rate_pct":54.97,"recall_pct":41.88,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":33.28,"quiet_windows":34534,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":80,"effective_sample":5285,"lead_median_hours":13.39,"headlineEligible":true,"verdict":{"grade":"beats_chance","label":"Beats chance","probabilityOfSkill":1,"reason":"68.8% of 5,285 warnings came true, against a 55.0% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Beats chance (probability the edge is real: 1.00)."}},{"stratum":"state_vote_verdict · 24h · equity","stratum_id":"state_vote_verdict · 24h · equity · directional","claim_family":"directional","engine":"state_vote_verdict","horizon_tier":"24h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":55.63,"base_rate_pct":51.2,"recall_pct":23.32,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":13.29,"quiet_windows":37476,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":52,"effective_sample":4150,"lead_median_hours":8.04,"headlineEligible":true,"verdict":{"grade":"beats_chance","label":"Beats chance","probabilityOfSkill":0.9999999945650105,"reason":"55.6% of 4,150 warnings came true, against a 51.2% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Beats chance (probability the edge is real: 1.00)."}},{"stratum":"ta_mean_reversion · 8h · crypto","stratum_id":"ta_mean_reversion · 8h · crypto · directional","claim_family":"directional","engine":"ta_mean_reversion","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":60.48,"base_rate_pct":52.76,"recall_pct":13.1,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":1.56,"quiet_windows":38936,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":30,"effective_sample":948,"lead_median_hours":3.93,"headlineEligible":true,"verdict":{"grade":"beats_chance","label":"Beats chance","probabilityOfSkill":0.9999991357230703,"reason":"60.5% of 948 warnings came true, against a 52.8% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Beats chance (probability the edge is real: 1.00)."}},{"stratum":"ta_topology_regime · 8h · crypto","stratum_id":"ta_topology_regime · 8h · crypto · magnitude","claim_family":"magnitude","engine":"ta_topology_regime","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":20.5,"base_rate_pct":7.07,"recall_pct":4.37,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":1.55,"quiet_windows":38936,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":10,"effective_sample":725,"lead_median_hours":6.91,"headlineEligible":true,"verdict":{"grade":"beats_chance","label":"Beats chance","probabilityOfSkill":1,"reason":"20.5% of 725 warnings came true, against a 7.1% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Beats chance (probability the edge is real: 1.00)."}},{"stratum":"ta_transport_shift · 8h · crypto","stratum_id":"ta_transport_shift · 8h · crypto · magnitude","claim_family":"magnitude","engine":"ta_transport_shift","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":19.56,"base_rate_pct":7.85,"recall_pct":1.31,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0.71,"quiet_windows":38936,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":3,"effective_sample":314,"lead_median_hours":4.91,"headlineEligible":true,"verdict":{"grade":"beats_chance","label":"Beats chance","probabilityOfSkill":0.9999999999699618,"reason":"19.6% of 314 warnings came true, against a 7.8% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Beats chance (probability the edge is real: 1.00)."}},{"stratum":"absorption_volume · 8h · crypto","stratum_id":"absorption_volume · 8h · crypto · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"absorption_volume","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":320895,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable crypto evidence for absorption_volume: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"absorption_volume · 8h · equity","stratum_id":"absorption_volume · 8h · equity · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"absorption_volume","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":357822,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable equity evidence for absorption_volume: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"agent_verdict · 24h · crypto","stratum_id":"agent_verdict · 24h · crypto · directional","claim_family":"directional","engine":"agent_verdict","horizon_tier":"24h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":52.08,"base_rate_pct":54.97,"recall_pct":49.12,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":39.83,"quiet_windows":132675,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":613,"effective_sample":33372,"lead_median_hours":17.03,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"worse_than_chance","label":"Worse than chance","probabilityOfSkill":0,"reason":"52.1% of 33,372 warnings came true, against a 55.0% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Worse than chance (probability the edge is real: 0.00)."},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"precision does not beat its own base rate (52.08 vs 54.97)"},{"stratum":"agent_verdict · 24h · crypto","stratum_id":"agent_verdict · 24h · crypto · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"agent_verdict","horizon_tier":"24h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0.15,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":null,"quiet_windows":null,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":3,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":14.75,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable crypto evidence for agent_verdict: neither a non-directional population for the magnitude gate, nor enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate"},{"stratum":"agent_verdict · 24h · equity","stratum_id":"agent_verdict · 24h · equity · directional","claim_family":"directional","engine":"agent_verdict","horizon_tier":"24h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":52.68,"base_rate_pct":51.2,"recall_pct":0.5,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0.35,"quiet_windows":156357,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":7,"effective_sample":372,"lead_median_hours":16.89,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"indistinguishable_from_chance","label":"Indistinguishable from chance","probabilityOfSkill":0.7160610469848112,"reason":"52.7% of 372 warnings came true, against a 51.2% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Indistinguishable from chance (probability the edge is real: 0.72)."},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"lift is not distinguishable from zero (+1.48pp, Wilson95 floor -3.6pp, n_eff=372)"},{"stratum":"agent_verdict · 24h · equity","stratum_id":"agent_verdict · 24h · equity · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"agent_verdict","horizon_tier":"24h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":null,"quiet_windows":null,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable equity evidence for agent_verdict: neither a non-directional population for the magnitude gate, nor enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate"},{"stratum":"agent_verdict_awm2 · 24h · crypto","stratum_id":"agent_verdict_awm2 · 24h · crypto · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"agent_verdict_awm2","horizon_tier":"24h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":257557,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable crypto evidence for agent_verdict_awm2: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"agent_verdict_awm2 · 24h · equity","stratum_id":"agent_verdict_awm2 · 24h · equity · directional","claim_family":"directional","engine":"agent_verdict_awm2","horizon_tier":"24h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":57.78,"base_rate_pct":51.2,"recall_pct":0.43,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0.17,"quiet_windows":40374,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":1,"effective_sample":45,"lead_median_hours":17.69,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"indistinguishable_from_chance","label":"Indistinguishable from chance","probabilityOfSkill":0.8095518870967777,"reason":"57.8% of 45 warnings came true, against a 51.2% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Indistinguishable from chance (probability the edge is real: 0.81)."},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"lift is not distinguishable from zero (+6.58pp, Wilson95 floor -7.9pp, n_eff=45)"},{"stratum":"agent_verdict_awm2 · 24h · equity","stratum_id":"agent_verdict_awm2 · 24h · equity · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"agent_verdict_awm2","horizon_tier":"24h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0.68,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0.19,"quiet_windows":18901,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":1,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":17.69,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable equity evidence for agent_verdict_awm2: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"anomaly · 2h · crypto","stratum_id":"anomaly · 2h · crypto · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"anomaly","horizon_tier":"2h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":325984,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable crypto evidence for anomaly: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"anomaly · 2h · equity","stratum_id":"anomaly · 2h · equity · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"anomaly","horizon_tier":"2h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":366334,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable equity evidence for anomaly: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"canonical_verdict · 72h · crypto","stratum_id":"canonical_verdict · 72h · crypto · directional","claim_family":"directional","engine":"canonical_verdict","horizon_tier":"72h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":55.09,"base_rate_pct":56.71,"recall_pct":33.92,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":26.31,"quiet_windows":97130,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":287,"effective_sample":10140,"lead_median_hours":48.13,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"worse_than_chance","label":"Worse than chance","probabilityOfSkill":0.00050675344458051,"reason":"55.1% of 10,140 warnings came true, against a 56.7% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Worse than chance (probability the edge is real: 0.00)."},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"precision does not beat its own base rate (55.09 vs 56.71)"},{"stratum":"canonical_verdict · 72h · crypto","stratum_id":"canonical_verdict · 72h · crypto · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"canonical_verdict","horizon_tier":"72h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":null,"quiet_windows":null,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable crypto evidence for canonical_verdict: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"canonical_verdict · 72h · equity","stratum_id":"canonical_verdict · 72h · equity · directional","claim_family":"directional","engine":"canonical_verdict","horizon_tier":"72h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":67.59,"base_rate_pct":51.71,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0.15,"quiet_windows":123812,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":88,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"beats_chance","label":"Beats chance","probabilityOfSkill":0.998652377075593,"reason":"67.6% of 88 warnings came true, against a 51.7% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Beats chance (probability the edge is real: 1.00)."},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no lead time (warned_events=0)"},{"stratum":"canonical_verdict · 72h · equity","stratum_id":"canonical_verdict · 72h · equity · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"canonical_verdict","horizon_tier":"72h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0.08,"quiet_windows":101655,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable equity evidence for canonical_verdict: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"canonical_verdict_awm2 · 72h · crypto","stratum_id":"canonical_verdict_awm2 · 72h · crypto · directional","claim_family":"directional","engine":"canonical_verdict_awm2","horizon_tier":"72h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":52.84,"base_rate_pct":56.05,"recall_pct":21.74,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":33.63,"quiet_windows":113,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":15,"effective_sample":976,"lead_median_hours":62.48,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"worse_than_chance","label":"Worse than chance","probabilityOfSkill":0.022101984786197293,"reason":"52.8% of 976 warnings came true, against a 56.0% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Worse than chance (probability the edge is real: 0.02)."},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"precision does not beat its own base rate (52.84 vs 56.05)"},{"stratum":"canonical_verdict_awm2 · 72h · crypto","stratum_id":"canonical_verdict_awm2 · 72h · crypto · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"canonical_verdict_awm2","horizon_tier":"72h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":227203,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable crypto evidence for canonical_verdict_awm2: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"canonical_verdict_awm2 · 72h · equity","stratum_id":"canonical_verdict_awm2 · 72h · equity · directional","claim_family":"directional","engine":"canonical_verdict_awm2","horizon_tier":"72h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":73.77,"base_rate_pct":51.71,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0.3,"quiet_windows":28099,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":49,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"beats_chance","label":"Beats chance","probabilityOfSkill":0.9991119062496889,"reason":"73.8% of 49 warnings came true, against a 51.7% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Beats chance (probability the edge is real: 1.00)."},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no lead time (warned_events=0)"},{"stratum":"canonical_verdict_awm2 · 72h · equity","stratum_id":"canonical_verdict_awm2 · 72h · equity · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"canonical_verdict_awm2","horizon_tier":"72h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":7657,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable equity evidence for canonical_verdict_awm2: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"capital_flow_60m · 2h · crypto","stratum_id":"capital_flow_60m · 2h · crypto · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"capital_flow_60m","horizon_tier":"2h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":325984,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable crypto evidence for capital_flow_60m: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"capital_flow_60m · 2h · equity","stratum_id":"capital_flow_60m · 2h · equity · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"capital_flow_60m","horizon_tier":"2h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":366334,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable equity evidence for capital_flow_60m: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"cascade_engine · 8h · crypto","stratum_id":"cascade_engine · 8h · crypto · directional","claim_family":"directional","engine":"cascade_engine","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":57.14,"base_rate_pct":50.95,"recall_pct":0.09,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0.02,"quiet_windows":138335,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":2,"effective_sample":42,"lead_median_hours":2.98,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"indistinguishable_from_chance","label":"Indistinguishable from chance","probabilityOfSkill":0.7866911529597951,"reason":"57.1% of 42 warnings came true, against a 51.0% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Indistinguishable from chance (probability the edge is real: 0.79)."},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"lift is not distinguishable from zero (+6.19pp, Wilson95 floor -8.75pp, n_eff=42)"},{"stratum":"cascade_engine · 8h · crypto","stratum_id":"cascade_engine · 8h · crypto · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"cascade_engine","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0.06,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0.02,"quiet_windows":89829,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":1,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":2.98,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable crypto evidence for cascade_engine: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"cascade_engine · 8h · equity","stratum_id":"cascade_engine · 8h · equity · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"cascade_engine","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":158340,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable equity evidence for cascade_engine: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"causality_engine · 8h · crypto","stratum_id":"causality_engine · 8h · crypto · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"causality_engine","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":320895,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable crypto evidence for causality_engine: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"causality_engine · 8h · equity","stratum_id":"causality_engine · 8h · equity · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"causality_engine","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":357822,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable equity evidence for causality_engine: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"committee_verdict · 24h · crypto","stratum_id":"committee_verdict · 24h · crypto · directional","claim_family":"directional","engine":"committee_verdict","horizon_tier":"24h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":53.89,"base_rate_pct":54.97,"recall_pct":21.59,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":15.82,"quiet_windows":134143,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":272,"effective_sample":13838,"lead_median_hours":17.41,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"worse_than_chance","label":"Worse than chance","probabilityOfSkill":0.00536843911304552,"reason":"53.9% of 13,838 warnings came true, against a 55.0% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Worse than chance (probability the edge is real: 0.01)."},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"precision does not beat its own base rate (53.89 vs 54.97)"},{"stratum":"committee_verdict · 24h · crypto","stratum_id":"committee_verdict · 24h · crypto · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"committee_verdict","horizon_tier":"24h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":null,"quiet_windows":null,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable crypto evidence for committee_verdict: neither a non-directional population for the magnitude gate, nor enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate"},{"stratum":"committee_verdict · 24h · equity","stratum_id":"committee_verdict · 24h · equity · directional","claim_family":"directional","engine":"committee_verdict","horizon_tier":"24h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":55.86,"base_rate_pct":50.76,"recall_pct":0.29,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0.29,"quiet_windows":100423,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":3,"effective_sample":179,"lead_median_hours":3.86,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"likely_beats_chance","label":"Likely beats chance","probabilityOfSkill":0.9135625448243349,"reason":"55.9% of 179 warnings came true, against a 50.8% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Likely beats chance (probability the edge is real: 0.91)."},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"lift is not distinguishable from zero (+5.1pp, Wilson95 floor -2.22pp, n_eff=179)"},{"stratum":"committee_verdict · 24h · equity","stratum_id":"committee_verdict · 24h · equity · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"committee_verdict","horizon_tier":"24h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":null,"quiet_windows":null,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable equity evidence for committee_verdict: neither a non-directional population for the magnitude gate, nor enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate"},{"stratum":"committee_verdict_awm2 · 24h · equity","stratum_id":"committee_verdict_awm2 · 24h · equity · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"committee_verdict_awm2","horizon_tier":"24h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0.03,"quiet_windows":45932,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable equity evidence for committee_verdict_awm2: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"contagion_directional · 8h · crypto","stratum_id":"contagion_directional · 8h · crypto · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"contagion_directional","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":null,"quiet_windows":null,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable crypto evidence for contagion_directional: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"contagion_directional · 8h · equity","stratum_id":"contagion_directional · 8h · equity · magnitude","claim_family":"magnitude","engine":"contagion_directional","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":21.38,"base_rate_pct":16.62,"recall_pct":0.25,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0.25,"quiet_windows":66285,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":2,"effective_sample":224,"lead_median_hours":3.98,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"likely_beats_chance","label":"Likely beats chance","probabilityOfSkill":0.9646764266889823,"reason":"21.4% of 224 warnings came true, against a 16.6% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Likely beats chance (probability the edge is real: 0.96)."},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"lift is not distinguishable from zero (+4.76pp, Wilson95 floor -0.1pp, n_eff=224)"},{"stratum":"contagion_directional · 8h · equity","stratum_id":"contagion_directional · 8h · equity · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"contagion_directional","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":null,"quiet_windows":null,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable equity evidence for contagion_directional: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"correlated_surge · 8h · crypto","stratum_id":"correlated_surge · 8h · crypto · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"correlated_surge","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":320895,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable crypto evidence for correlated_surge: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"correlated_surge · 8h · equity","stratum_id":"correlated_surge · 8h · equity · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"correlated_surge","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":357822,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable equity evidence for correlated_surge: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"correlation · 48h · crypto","stratum_id":"correlation · 48h · crypto · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"correlation","horizon_tier":"48h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":278217,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable crypto evidence for correlation: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"correlation · 48h · equity","stratum_id":"correlation · 48h · equity · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"correlation","horizon_tier":"48h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":333178,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable equity evidence for correlation: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"correlation_regime · 24h · crypto","stratum_id":"correlation_regime · 24h · crypto · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"correlation_regime","horizon_tier":"24h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":285,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable crypto evidence for correlation_regime: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"correlation_regime · 24h · equity","stratum_id":"correlation_regime · 24h · equity · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"correlation_regime","horizon_tier":"24h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":null,"quiet_windows":0,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable equity evidence for correlation_regime: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"crash_predictor · 2h · crypto","stratum_id":"crash_predictor · 2h · crypto · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"crash_predictor","horizon_tier":"2h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":1.25,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":null,"quiet_windows":null,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":56,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":1.45,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable crypto evidence for crash_predictor: neither a non-directional population for the magnitude gate, nor enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate"},{"stratum":"crash_predictor · 2h · equity","stratum_id":"crash_predictor · 2h · equity · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"crash_predictor","horizon_tier":"2h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":null,"quiet_windows":null,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable equity evidence for crash_predictor: neither a non-directional population for the magnitude gate, nor enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate"},{"stratum":"cross_asset_rotation · 24h · crypto","stratum_id":"cross_asset_rotation · 24h · crypto · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"cross_asset_rotation","horizon_tier":"24h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":299580,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable crypto evidence for cross_asset_rotation: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"cross_asset_rotation · 24h · equity","stratum_id":"cross_asset_rotation · 24h · equity · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"cross_asset_rotation","horizon_tier":"24h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":345380,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable equity evidence for cross_asset_rotation: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"cross_asset_structure · 24h · crypto","stratum_id":"cross_asset_structure · 24h · crypto · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"cross_asset_structure","horizon_tier":"24h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":299580,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable crypto evidence for cross_asset_structure: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"cross_asset_structure · 24h · equity","stratum_id":"cross_asset_structure · 24h · equity · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"cross_asset_structure","horizon_tier":"24h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":345380,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable equity evidence for cross_asset_structure: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"dark_pool · 8h · crypto","stratum_id":"dark_pool · 8h · crypto · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"dark_pool","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":320895,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable crypto evidence for dark_pool: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"dark_pool · 8h · equity","stratum_id":"dark_pool · 8h · equity · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"dark_pool","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":357822,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable equity evidence for dark_pool: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"decline_volume_surge · 8h · crypto","stratum_id":"decline_volume_surge · 8h · crypto · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"decline_volume_surge","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":320895,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable crypto evidence for decline_volume_surge: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"decline_volume_surge · 8h · equity","stratum_id":"decline_volume_surge · 8h · equity · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"decline_volume_surge","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":357822,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable equity evidence for decline_volume_surge: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"down_up_volume_ratio · 8h · crypto","stratum_id":"down_up_volume_ratio · 8h · crypto · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"down_up_volume_ratio","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":320895,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable crypto evidence for down_up_volume_ratio: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"down_up_volume_ratio · 8h · equity","stratum_id":"down_up_volume_ratio · 8h · equity · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"down_up_volume_ratio","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":357822,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable equity evidence for down_up_volume_ratio: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"early_warning · 48h · crypto","stratum_id":"early_warning · 48h · crypto · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"early_warning","horizon_tier":"48h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":278217,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable crypto evidence for early_warning: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"early_warning · 48h · equity","stratum_id":"early_warning · 48h · equity · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"early_warning","horizon_tier":"48h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":333178,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable equity evidence for early_warning: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"early_warning_24h · 24h · crypto","stratum_id":"early_warning_24h · 24h · crypto · event_detection","claim_family":"event_detection","engine":"early_warning_24h","horizon_tier":"24h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":30.13,"base_rate_pct":33.31,"recall_pct":34.71,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":27.58,"quiet_windows":122531,"base_kind":"symbol_matched","warned_events":420,"effective_sample":27157,"lead_median_hours":21.13,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"worse_than_chance","label":"Worse than chance","probabilityOfSkill":0,"reason":"30.1% of 27,157 warnings came true, against a 33.3% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Worse than chance (probability the edge is real: 0.00)."},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"precision does not beat its own base rate (30.13 vs 33.31)"},{"stratum":"early_warning_24h · 24h · crypto","stratum_id":"early_warning_24h · 24h · crypto · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"early_warning_24h","horizon_tier":"24h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":1.19,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":null,"quiet_windows":null,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":25,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":18.39,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable crypto evidence for early_warning_24h: neither a non-directional population for the magnitude gate, nor enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate"},{"stratum":"early_warning_24h · 24h · equity","stratum_id":"early_warning_24h · 24h · equity · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"early_warning_24h","horizon_tier":"24h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":146998,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable equity evidence for early_warning_24h: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"early_warning_24h_up · 24h · crypto","stratum_id":"early_warning_24h_up · 24h · crypto · event_detection","claim_family":"event_detection","engine":"early_warning_24h_up","horizon_tier":"24h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":42.35,"base_rate_pct":36.25,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":106210,"base_kind":"symbol_matched","warned_events":0,"effective_sample":7371,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"beats_chance","label":"Beats chance","probabilityOfSkill":1,"reason":"42.4% of 7,371 warnings came true, against a 36.3% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Beats chance (probability the edge is real: 1.00)."},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no lead time (warned_events=0)"},{"stratum":"early_warning_24h_up · 24h · crypto","stratum_id":"early_warning_24h_up · 24h · crypto · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"early_warning_24h_up","horizon_tier":"24h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":null,"quiet_windows":null,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable crypto evidence for early_warning_24h_up: truth condition pump_5pct_v1 has direction 'up'; this base measures downside drawdown only"},{"stratum":"early_warning_24h_up · 24h · equity","stratum_id":"early_warning_24h_up · 24h · equity · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"early_warning_24h_up","horizon_tier":"24h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":128739,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable equity evidence for early_warning_24h_up: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"early_warning_6h · 8h · crypto","stratum_id":"early_warning_6h · 8h · crypto · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"early_warning_6h","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0.55,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":null,"quiet_windows":null,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":17,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":3.62,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable crypto evidence for early_warning_6h: neither a non-directional population for the magnitude gate, nor enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate"},{"stratum":"early_warning_6h · 8h · equity","stratum_id":"early_warning_6h · 8h · equity · event_detection","claim_family":"event_detection","engine":"early_warning_6h","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":7.05,"base_rate_pct":6.52,"recall_pct":0.14,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0.17,"quiet_windows":161057,"base_kind":"symbol_matched","warned_events":3,"effective_sample":374,"lead_median_hours":0.28,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"indistinguishable_from_chance","label":"Indistinguishable from chance","probabilityOfSkill":0.6370842827584293,"reason":"7.0% of 374 warnings came true, against a 6.5% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Indistinguishable from chance (probability the edge is real: 0.64)."},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"lift is not distinguishable from zero (+0.53pp, Wilson95 floor -1.65pp, n_eff=374)"},{"stratum":"early_warning_6h · 8h · equity","stratum_id":"early_warning_6h · 8h · equity · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"early_warning_6h","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0.03,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":null,"quiet_windows":null,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":1,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":0.28,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable equity evidence for early_warning_6h: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"early_warning_6h_up · 8h · crypto","stratum_id":"early_warning_6h_up · 8h · crypto · event_detection","claim_family":"event_detection","engine":"early_warning_6h_up","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":11.06,"base_rate_pct":7.6,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":114859,"base_kind":"symbol_matched","warned_events":0,"effective_sample":11132,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"beats_chance","label":"Beats chance","probabilityOfSkill":1,"reason":"11.1% of 11,132 warnings came true, against a 7.6% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Beats chance (probability the edge is real: 1.00)."},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no lead time (warned_events=0)"},{"stratum":"early_warning_6h_up · 8h · crypto","stratum_id":"early_warning_6h_up · 8h · crypto · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"early_warning_6h_up","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":null,"quiet_windows":null,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable crypto evidence for early_warning_6h_up: truth condition pump_5pct_v1 has direction 'up'; this base measures downside drawdown only"},{"stratum":"early_warning_6h_up · 8h · equity","stratum_id":"early_warning_6h_up · 8h · equity · event_detection","claim_family":"event_detection","engine":"early_warning_6h_up","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":2.36,"base_rate_pct":5.61,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":134819,"base_kind":"symbol_matched","warned_events":0,"effective_sample":423,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"worse_than_chance","label":"Worse than chance","probabilityOfSkill":0.00040649911305123965,"reason":"2.4% of 423 warnings came true, against a 5.6% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Worse than chance (probability the edge is real: 0.00)."},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no lead time (warned_events=0)"},{"stratum":"early_warning_6h_up · 8h · equity","stratum_id":"early_warning_6h_up · 8h · equity · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"early_warning_6h_up","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":null,"quiet_windows":null,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable equity evidence for early_warning_6h_up: truth condition pump_5pct_v1 has direction 'up'; this base measures downside drawdown only"},{"stratum":"early_warning_72h · 72h · crypto","stratum_id":"early_warning_72h · 72h · crypto · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"early_warning_72h","horizon_tier":"72h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0.06,"quiet_windows":19579,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable crypto evidence for early_warning_72h: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"early_warning_72h · 72h · equity","stratum_id":"early_warning_72h · 72h · equity · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"early_warning_72h","horizon_tier":"72h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":23122,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable equity evidence for early_warning_72h: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"early_warning_72h_up · 72h · crypto","stratum_id":"early_warning_72h_up · 72h · crypto · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"early_warning_72h_up","horizon_tier":"72h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":258479,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable crypto evidence for early_warning_72h_up: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"early_warning_72h_up · 72h · equity","stratum_id":"early_warning_72h_up · 72h · equity · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"early_warning_72h_up","horizon_tier":"72h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":323754,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable equity evidence for early_warning_72h_up: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"early_warning_synthesis · 48h · crypto","stratum_id":"early_warning_synthesis · 48h · crypto · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"early_warning_synthesis","horizon_tier":"48h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":278217,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable crypto evidence for early_warning_synthesis: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"early_warning_synthesis · 48h · equity","stratum_id":"early_warning_synthesis · 48h · equity · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"early_warning_synthesis","horizon_tier":"48h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":333178,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable equity evidence for early_warning_synthesis: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"early_warning_synthesis_awm2 · 48h · crypto","stratum_id":"early_warning_synthesis_awm2 · 48h · crypto · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"early_warning_synthesis_awm2","horizon_tier":"48h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":278217,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable crypto evidence for early_warning_synthesis_awm2: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"early_warning_synthesis_awm2 · 48h · equity","stratum_id":"early_warning_synthesis_awm2 · 48h · equity · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"early_warning_synthesis_awm2","horizon_tier":"48h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":333178,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable equity evidence for early_warning_synthesis_awm2: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"etf_inflow · 8h · crypto","stratum_id":"etf_inflow · 8h · crypto · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"etf_inflow","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":320895,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable crypto evidence for etf_inflow: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"etf_inflow · 8h · equity","stratum_id":"etf_inflow · 8h · equity · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"etf_inflow","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":357822,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable equity evidence for etf_inflow: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"fall_warning_8h · 8h · crypto","stratum_id":"fall_warning_8h · 8h · crypto · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"fall_warning_8h","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":316872,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable crypto evidence for fall_warning_8h: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"fall_warning_8h · 8h · equity","stratum_id":"fall_warning_8h · 8h · equity · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"fall_warning_8h","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":353416,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable equity evidence for fall_warning_8h: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"flash_crash_detected · 2h · crypto","stratum_id":"flash_crash_detected · 2h · crypto · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"flash_crash_detected","horizon_tier":"2h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0.56,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0.71,"quiet_windows":146707,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":16,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":1.55,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable crypto evidence for flash_crash_detected: truth condition flash_crash_v1 bounds the event to 900s and this base cannot express a duration bound; scoring it against a base that counts slow declines would inflate the lift"},{"stratum":"flash_crash_detected · 2h · equity","stratum_id":"flash_crash_detected · 2h · equity · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"flash_crash_detected","horizon_tier":"2h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0.44,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0.15,"quiet_windows":172644,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":15,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":0.76,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable equity evidence for flash_crash_detected: truth condition flash_crash_v1 bounds the event to 900s and this base cannot express a duration bound; scoring it against a base that counts slow declines would inflate the lift"},{"stratum":"flash_crash_precursor · 2h · crypto","stratum_id":"flash_crash_precursor · 2h · crypto · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"flash_crash_precursor","horizon_tier":"2h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":324535,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable crypto evidence for flash_crash_precursor: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"flash_crash_precursor · 2h · equity","stratum_id":"flash_crash_precursor · 2h · equity · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"flash_crash_precursor","horizon_tier":"2h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":363311,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable equity evidence for flash_crash_precursor: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"forecast_72h · 72h · crypto","stratum_id":"forecast_72h · 72h · crypto · directional","claim_family":"directional","engine":"forecast_72h","horizon_tier":"72h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":51.08,"base_rate_pct":54.22,"recall_pct":17.89,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":13.57,"quiet_windows":93061,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":134,"effective_sample":3760,"lead_median_hours":58.45,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"worse_than_chance","label":"Worse than chance","probabilityOfSkill":0.000057272211435255294,"reason":"51.1% of 3,760 warnings came true, against a 54.2% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Worse than chance (probability the edge is real: 0.00)."},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"precision does not beat its own base rate (51.08 vs 54.22)"},{"stratum":"forecast_72h · 72h · crypto","stratum_id":"forecast_72h · 72h · crypto · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"forecast_72h","horizon_tier":"72h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":null,"quiet_windows":null,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable crypto evidence for forecast_72h: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"forecast_72h · 72h · equity","stratum_id":"forecast_72h · 72h · equity · directional","claim_family":"directional","engine":"forecast_72h","horizon_tier":"72h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":57.83,"base_rate_pct":51.68,"recall_pct":0.51,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0.14,"quiet_windows":93810,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":4,"effective_sample":78,"lead_median_hours":20.1,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"indistinguishable_from_chance","label":"Indistinguishable from chance","probabilityOfSkill":0.8608632731145504,"reason":"57.8% of 78 warnings came true, against a 51.7% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Indistinguishable from chance (probability the edge is real: 0.86)."},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"lift is not distinguishable from zero (+6.15pp, Wilson95 floor -4.92pp, n_eff=78)"},{"stratum":"forecast_72h · 72h · equity","stratum_id":"forecast_72h · 72h · equity · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"forecast_72h","horizon_tier":"72h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":72554,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable equity evidence for forecast_72h: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"forecast_72h_awm2 · 72h · crypto","stratum_id":"forecast_72h_awm2 · 72h · crypto · directional","claim_family":"directional","engine":"forecast_72h_awm2","horizon_tier":"72h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":53.81,"base_rate_pct":53.65,"recall_pct":33,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":21.1,"quiet_windows":4933,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":33,"effective_sample":863,"lead_median_hours":68.51,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"indistinguishable_from_chance","label":"Indistinguishable from chance","probabilityOfSkill":0.5381845096382754,"reason":"53.8% of 863 warnings came true, against a 53.6% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Indistinguishable from chance (probability the edge is real: 0.54)."},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"lift is not distinguishable from zero (+0.16pp, Wilson95 floor -3.18pp, n_eff=863)"},{"stratum":"forecast_72h_awm2 · 72h · crypto","stratum_id":"forecast_72h_awm2 · 72h · crypto · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"forecast_72h_awm2","horizon_tier":"72h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":221825,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable crypto evidence for forecast_72h_awm2: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"forecast_72h_awm2 · 72h · equity","stratum_id":"forecast_72h_awm2 · 72h · equity · directional","claim_family":"directional","engine":"forecast_72h_awm2","horizon_tier":"72h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":54.55,"base_rate_pct":51.68,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0.43,"quiet_windows":7657,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":63,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"indistinguishable_from_chance","label":"Indistinguishable from chance","probabilityOfSkill":0.6754017652640442,"reason":"54.5% of 63 warnings came true, against a 51.7% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Indistinguishable from chance (probability the edge is real: 0.68)."},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no lead time (warned_events=0)"},{"stratum":"forecast_72h_awm2 · 72h · equity","stratum_id":"forecast_72h_awm2 · 72h · equity · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"forecast_72h_awm2","horizon_tier":"72h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":null,"quiet_windows":0,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable equity evidence for forecast_72h_awm2: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"funding_measured · 48h · crypto","stratum_id":"funding_measured · 48h · crypto · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"funding_measured","horizon_tier":"48h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":278217,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable crypto evidence for funding_measured: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"funding_measured · 48h · equity","stratum_id":"funding_measured · 48h · equity · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"funding_measured","horizon_tier":"48h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":333178,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable equity evidence for funding_measured: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"funding_proxy · 8h · crypto","stratum_id":"funding_proxy · 8h · crypto · magnitude","claim_family":"magnitude","engine":"funding_proxy","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":18.2,"base_rate_pct":6.83,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":145307,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":11696,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"beats_chance","label":"Beats chance","probabilityOfSkill":1,"reason":"18.2% of 11,696 warnings came true, against a 6.8% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Beats chance (probability the edge is real: 1.00)."},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no lead time (warned_events=0)"},{"stratum":"funding_proxy · 8h · equity","stratum_id":"funding_proxy · 8h · equity · magnitude","claim_family":"magnitude","engine":"funding_proxy","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":26.53,"base_rate_pct":6.11,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":170471,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":2228,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"beats_chance","label":"Beats chance","probabilityOfSkill":1,"reason":"26.5% of 2,228 warnings came true, against a 6.1% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Beats chance (probability the edge is real: 1.00)."},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no lead time (warned_events=0)"},{"stratum":"funding_stress · 48h · crypto","stratum_id":"funding_stress · 48h · crypto · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"funding_stress","horizon_tier":"48h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":278217,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable crypto evidence for funding_stress: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"funding_stress · 48h · equity","stratum_id":"funding_stress · 48h · equity · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"funding_stress","horizon_tier":"48h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":333178,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable equity evidence for funding_stress: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"hidden_liquidity · 2h · crypto","stratum_id":"hidden_liquidity · 2h · crypto · magnitude","claim_family":"magnitude","engine":"hidden_liquidity","horizon_tier":"2h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":5.11,"base_rate_pct":6.59,"recall_pct":1.36,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":1.24,"quiet_windows":39468,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":5,"effective_sample":3736,"lead_median_hours":0.68,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"worse_than_chance","label":"Worse than chance","probabilityOfSkill":0.00007027234162459983,"reason":"5.1% of 3,736 warnings came true, against a 6.6% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Worse than chance (probability the edge is real: 0.00)."},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"precision does not beat its own base rate (5.11 vs 6.59)"},{"stratum":"hidden_liquidity · 2h · crypto","stratum_id":"hidden_liquidity · 2h · crypto · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"hidden_liquidity","horizon_tier":"2h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":285656,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable crypto evidence for hidden_liquidity: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"hidden_liquidity · 2h · equity","stratum_id":"hidden_liquidity · 2h · equity · magnitude","claim_family":"magnitude","engine":"hidden_liquidity","horizon_tier":"2h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":1.93,"base_rate_pct":4.27,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0.03,"quiet_windows":42184,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":169,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"likely_worse_than_chance","label":"Likely worse than chance","probabilityOfSkill":0.03355998937099336,"reason":"1.9% of 169 warnings came true, against a 4.3% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Likely worse than chance (probability the edge is real: 0.03)."},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no lead time (warned_events=0)"},{"stratum":"hidden_liquidity · 2h · equity","stratum_id":"hidden_liquidity · 2h · equity · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"hidden_liquidity","horizon_tier":"2h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":318008,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable equity evidence for hidden_liquidity: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"hidden_size_proxy · 8h · crypto","stratum_id":"hidden_size_proxy · 8h · crypto · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"hidden_size_proxy","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":320895,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable crypto evidence for hidden_size_proxy: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"hidden_size_proxy · 8h · equity","stratum_id":"hidden_size_proxy · 8h · equity · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"hidden_size_proxy","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":357822,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable equity evidence for hidden_size_proxy: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"large_print · 8h · crypto","stratum_id":"large_print · 8h · crypto · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"large_print","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":320895,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable crypto evidence for large_print: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"large_print · 8h · equity","stratum_id":"large_print · 8h · equity · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"large_print","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":357822,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable equity evidence for large_print: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"learned_fall_risk · 8h · crypto","stratum_id":"learned_fall_risk · 8h · crypto · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"learned_fall_risk","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":281533,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable crypto evidence for learned_fall_risk: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"learned_fall_risk · 8h · equity","stratum_id":"learned_fall_risk · 8h · equity · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"learned_fall_risk","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":39434,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable equity evidence for learned_fall_risk: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"leverage · 48h · crypto","stratum_id":"leverage · 48h · crypto · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"leverage","horizon_tier":"48h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":278217,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable crypto evidence for leverage: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"leverage · 48h · equity","stratum_id":"leverage · 48h · equity · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"leverage","horizon_tier":"48h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":333178,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable equity evidence for leverage: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"leverage_measured · 48h · crypto","stratum_id":"leverage_measured · 48h · crypto · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"leverage_measured","horizon_tier":"48h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":278217,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable crypto evidence for leverage_measured: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"leverage_measured · 48h · equity","stratum_id":"leverage_measured · 48h · equity · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"leverage_measured","horizon_tier":"48h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":333178,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable equity evidence for leverage_measured: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"leverage_proxy · 48h · crypto","stratum_id":"leverage_proxy · 48h · crypto · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"leverage_proxy","horizon_tier":"48h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":278217,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable crypto evidence for leverage_proxy: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"leverage_proxy · 48h · equity","stratum_id":"leverage_proxy · 48h · equity · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"leverage_proxy","horizon_tier":"48h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":333178,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable equity evidence for leverage_proxy: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"market_depth_orderbook · 2h · crypto","stratum_id":"market_depth_orderbook · 2h · crypto · magnitude","claim_family":"magnitude","engine":"market_depth_orderbook","horizon_tier":"2h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":4.36,"base_rate_pct":7.61,"recall_pct":2.61,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0.53,"quiet_windows":39329,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":8,"effective_sample":777,"lead_median_hours":1.16,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"worse_than_chance","label":"Worse than chance","probabilityOfSkill":0.00009284295575229251,"reason":"4.4% of 777 warnings came true, against a 7.6% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Worse than chance (probability the edge is real: 0.00)."},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"precision does not beat its own base rate (4.36 vs 7.61)"},{"stratum":"market_depth_orderbook · 2h · crypto","stratum_id":"market_depth_orderbook · 2h · crypto · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"market_depth_orderbook","horizon_tier":"2h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":284152,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable crypto evidence for market_depth_orderbook: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"market_depth_orderbook · 2h · equity","stratum_id":"market_depth_orderbook · 2h · equity · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"market_depth_orderbook","horizon_tier":"2h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":41682,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable equity evidence for market_depth_orderbook: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"market_regime · 48h · crypto","stratum_id":"market_regime · 48h · crypto · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"market_regime","horizon_tier":"48h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":278217,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable crypto evidence for market_regime: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"market_regime · 48h · equity","stratum_id":"market_regime · 48h · equity · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"market_regime","horizon_tier":"48h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":333178,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable equity evidence for market_regime: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"market_regime_flip · 48h · crypto","stratum_id":"market_regime_flip · 48h · crypto · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"market_regime_flip","horizon_tier":"48h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":278217,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable crypto evidence for market_regime_flip: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"market_regime_flip · 48h · equity","stratum_id":"market_regime_flip · 48h · equity · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"market_regime_flip","horizon_tier":"48h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":333178,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable equity evidence for market_regime_flip: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"meta_pattern · 24h · crypto","stratum_id":"meta_pattern · 24h · crypto · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"meta_pattern","horizon_tier":"24h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":299580,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable crypto evidence for meta_pattern: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"meta_pattern · 24h · equity","stratum_id":"meta_pattern · 24h · equity · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"meta_pattern","horizon_tier":"24h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":345380,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable equity evidence for meta_pattern: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"microstructure · 8h · crypto","stratum_id":"microstructure · 8h · crypto · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"microstructure","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":320895,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable crypto evidence for microstructure: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"microstructure · 8h · equity","stratum_id":"microstructure · 8h · equity · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"microstructure","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":357822,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable equity evidence for microstructure: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"ml_ensemble · 2h · crypto","stratum_id":"ml_ensemble · 2h · crypto · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"ml_ensemble","horizon_tier":"2h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":325984,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable crypto evidence for ml_ensemble: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"ml_ensemble · 2h · equity","stratum_id":"ml_ensemble · 2h · equity · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"ml_ensemble","horizon_tier":"2h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":366334,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable equity evidence for ml_ensemble: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"momentum · 2h · equity","stratum_id":"momentum · 2h · equity · directional","claim_family":"directional","engine":"momentum","horizon_tier":"2h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":50.18,"base_rate_pct":50.04,"recall_pct":1.33,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":2.88,"quiet_windows":174343,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":52,"effective_sample":28709,"lead_median_hours":0.4,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"indistinguishable_from_chance","label":"Indistinguishable from chance","probabilityOfSkill":0.6823993465522524,"reason":"50.2% of 28,709 warnings came true, against a 50.0% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Indistinguishable from chance (probability the edge is real: 0.68)."},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"lift is not distinguishable from zero (+0.14pp, Wilson95 floor -0.44pp, n_eff=28709)"},{"stratum":"ofi · 8h · crypto","stratum_id":"ofi · 8h · crypto · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"ofi","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":320895,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable crypto evidence for ofi: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"ofi · 8h · equity","stratum_id":"ofi · 8h · equity · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"ofi","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":357822,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable equity evidence for ofi: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"ofi_candle_proxy · 8h · crypto","stratum_id":"ofi_candle_proxy · 8h · crypto · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"ofi_candle_proxy","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":280267,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable crypto evidence for ofi_candle_proxy: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"ofi_candle_proxy · 8h · equity","stratum_id":"ofi_candle_proxy · 8h · equity · magnitude","claim_family":"magnitude","engine":"ofi_candle_proxy","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":1.57,"base_rate_pct":4.28,"recall_pct":0.21,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0.19,"quiet_windows":40387,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":1,"effective_sample":126,"lead_median_hours":1.16,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"likely_worse_than_chance","label":"Likely worse than chance","probabilityOfSkill":0.028352371136665888,"reason":"1.6% of 126 warnings came true, against a 4.3% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Likely worse than chance (probability the edge is real: 0.03)."},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"precision does not beat its own base rate (1.57 vs 4.28)"},{"stratum":"ofi_candle_proxy · 8h · equity","stratum_id":"ofi_candle_proxy · 8h · equity · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"ofi_candle_proxy","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":1889,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable equity evidence for ofi_candle_proxy: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"ofi_measured · 8h · crypto","stratum_id":"ofi_measured · 8h · crypto · directional","claim_family":"directional","engine":"ofi_measured","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":51.89,"base_rate_pct":51.51,"recall_pct":1.14,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0.53,"quiet_windows":42851,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":3,"effective_sample":385,"lead_median_hours":3.31,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"indistinguishable_from_chance","label":"Indistinguishable from chance","probabilityOfSkill":0.5596183858973478,"reason":"51.9% of 385 warnings came true, against a 51.5% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Indistinguishable from chance (probability the edge is real: 0.56)."},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"lift is not distinguishable from zero (+0.38pp, Wilson95 floor -4.6pp, n_eff=385)"},{"stratum":"ofi_measured · 8h · crypto","stratum_id":"ofi_measured · 8h · crypto · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"ofi_measured","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":276684,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable crypto evidence for ofi_measured: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"ofi_measured · 8h · equity","stratum_id":"ofi_measured · 8h · equity · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"ofi_measured","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":46168,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable equity evidence for ofi_measured: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"oracle_dir_1h · 2h · crypto","stratum_id":"oracle_dir_1h · 2h · crypto · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"oracle_dir_1h","horizon_tier":"2h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":325984,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable crypto evidence for oracle_dir_1h: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"oracle_dir_1h · 2h · equity","stratum_id":"oracle_dir_1h · 2h · equity · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"oracle_dir_1h","horizon_tier":"2h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":366334,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable equity evidence for oracle_dir_1h: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"oracle_dir_24h · 24h · crypto","stratum_id":"oracle_dir_24h · 24h · crypto · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"oracle_dir_24h","horizon_tier":"24h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":299580,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable crypto evidence for oracle_dir_24h: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"oracle_dir_24h · 24h · equity","stratum_id":"oracle_dir_24h · 24h · equity · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"oracle_dir_24h","horizon_tier":"24h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":345380,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable equity evidence for oracle_dir_24h: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"oracle_dir_6h · 8h · crypto","stratum_id":"oracle_dir_6h · 8h · crypto · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"oracle_dir_6h","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":319870,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable crypto evidence for oracle_dir_6h: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"oracle_dir_6h · 8h · equity","stratum_id":"oracle_dir_6h · 8h · equity · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"oracle_dir_6h","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":356955,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable equity evidence for oracle_dir_6h: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"oracle_fall_24h · 24h · crypto","stratum_id":"oracle_fall_24h · 24h · crypto · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"oracle_fall_24h","horizon_tier":"24h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":299580,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable crypto evidence for oracle_fall_24h: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"oracle_fall_24h · 24h · equity","stratum_id":"oracle_fall_24h · 24h · equity · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"oracle_fall_24h","horizon_tier":"24h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":345380,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable equity evidence for oracle_fall_24h: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"oracle_fall_2h · 2h · crypto","stratum_id":"oracle_fall_2h · 2h · crypto · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"oracle_fall_2h","horizon_tier":"2h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":324535,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable crypto evidence for oracle_fall_2h: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"oracle_fall_2h · 2h · equity","stratum_id":"oracle_fall_2h · 2h · equity · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"oracle_fall_2h","horizon_tier":"2h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":363311,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable equity evidence for oracle_fall_2h: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"oracle_fall_6h · 8h · crypto","stratum_id":"oracle_fall_6h · 8h · crypto · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"oracle_fall_6h","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":319870,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable crypto evidence for oracle_fall_6h: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"oracle_fall_6h · 8h · equity","stratum_id":"oracle_fall_6h · 8h · equity · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"oracle_fall_6h","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":356955,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable equity evidence for oracle_fall_6h: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"pattern · 2h · crypto","stratum_id":"pattern · 2h · crypto · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"pattern","horizon_tier":"2h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":325984,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable crypto evidence for pattern: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"pattern · 2h · equity","stratum_id":"pattern · 2h · equity · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"pattern","horizon_tier":"2h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":366334,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable equity evidence for pattern: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"rising_volume_flat_price · 8h · crypto","stratum_id":"rising_volume_flat_price · 8h · crypto · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"rising_volume_flat_price","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":320895,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable crypto evidence for rising_volume_flat_price: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"rising_volume_flat_price · 8h · equity","stratum_id":"rising_volume_flat_price · 8h · equity · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"rising_volume_flat_price","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":357822,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable equity evidence for rising_volume_flat_price: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"risk_intelligence · 48h · crypto","stratum_id":"risk_intelligence · 48h · crypto · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"risk_intelligence","horizon_tier":"48h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":278217,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable crypto evidence for risk_intelligence: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"risk_intelligence · 48h · equity","stratum_id":"risk_intelligence · 48h · equity · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"risk_intelligence","horizon_tier":"48h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":333178,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable equity evidence for risk_intelligence: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"risk_intelligence_72h · 24h · crypto","stratum_id":"risk_intelligence_72h · 24h · crypto · event_detection","claim_family":"event_detection","engine":"risk_intelligence_72h","horizon_tier":"24h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":12.65,"base_rate_pct":12.9,"recall_pct":19.27,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":19.74,"quiet_windows":141289,"base_kind":"symbol_matched","warned_events":307,"effective_sample":10564,"lead_median_hours":6.85,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"indistinguishable_from_chance","label":"Indistinguishable from chance","probabilityOfSkill":0.21890970976771362,"reason":"12.7% of 10,564 warnings came true, against a 12.9% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Indistinguishable from chance (probability the edge is real: 0.22)."},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"precision does not beat its own base rate (12.65 vs 12.9)"},{"stratum":"risk_intelligence_72h · 24h · equity","stratum_id":"risk_intelligence_72h · 24h · equity · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"risk_intelligence_72h","horizon_tier":"24h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0.01,"quiet_windows":165363,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable equity evidence for risk_intelligence_72h: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"risk_intelligence_72h · 8h · crypto","stratum_id":"risk_intelligence_72h · 8h · crypto · event_detection","claim_family":"event_detection","engine":"risk_intelligence_72h","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":12.65,"base_rate_pct":12.9,"recall_pct":10.9,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":11.07,"quiet_windows":144910,"base_kind":"symbol_matched","warned_events":214,"effective_sample":10564,"lead_median_hours":3.02,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"indistinguishable_from_chance","label":"Indistinguishable from chance","probabilityOfSkill":0.21890970976771362,"reason":"12.7% of 10,564 warnings came true, against a 12.9% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Indistinguishable from chance (probability the edge is real: 0.22)."},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"precision does not beat its own base rate (12.65 vs 12.9)"},{"stratum":"risk_intelligence_72h · 8h · equity","stratum_id":"risk_intelligence_72h · 8h · equity · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"risk_intelligence_72h","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0.01,"quiet_windows":169756,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable equity evidence for risk_intelligence_72h: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"risk_intelligence_liquidation · 8h · crypto","stratum_id":"risk_intelligence_liquidation · 8h · crypto · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"risk_intelligence_liquidation","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":320895,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable crypto evidence for risk_intelligence_liquidation: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"risk_intelligence_liquidation · 8h · equity","stratum_id":"risk_intelligence_liquidation · 8h · equity · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"risk_intelligence_liquidation","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":357822,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable equity evidence for risk_intelligence_liquidation: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"risk_intelligence_measured · 48h · crypto","stratum_id":"risk_intelligence_measured · 48h · crypto · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"risk_intelligence_measured","horizon_tier":"48h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":278217,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable crypto evidence for risk_intelligence_measured: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"risk_intelligence_measured · 48h · equity","stratum_id":"risk_intelligence_measured · 48h · equity · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"risk_intelligence_measured","horizon_tier":"48h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":333178,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable equity evidence for risk_intelligence_measured: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"risk_intelligence_news · 8h · crypto","stratum_id":"risk_intelligence_news · 8h · crypto · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"risk_intelligence_news","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":320895,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable crypto evidence for risk_intelligence_news: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"risk_intelligence_news · 8h · equity","stratum_id":"risk_intelligence_news · 8h · equity · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"risk_intelligence_news","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":357822,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable equity evidence for risk_intelligence_news: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"sentiment · 8h · crypto","stratum_id":"sentiment · 8h · crypto · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"sentiment","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":320895,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable crypto evidence for sentiment: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"sentiment · 8h · equity","stratum_id":"sentiment · 8h · equity · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"sentiment","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":357822,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable equity evidence for sentiment: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"sentiment_news · 8h · crypto","stratum_id":"sentiment_news · 8h · crypto · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"sentiment_news","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":320895,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable crypto evidence for sentiment_news: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"sentiment_news · 8h · equity","stratum_id":"sentiment_news · 8h · equity · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"sentiment_news","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":357822,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable equity evidence for sentiment_news: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"stablecoin · 48h · crypto","stratum_id":"stablecoin · 48h · crypto · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"stablecoin","horizon_tier":"48h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":278217,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable crypto evidence for stablecoin: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"stablecoin · 48h · equity","stratum_id":"stablecoin · 48h · equity · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"stablecoin","horizon_tier":"48h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":333178,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable equity evidence for stablecoin: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"state_vote_verdict · 24h · crypto","stratum_id":"state_vote_verdict · 24h · crypto · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"state_vote_verdict","horizon_tier":"24h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":756,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable crypto evidence for state_vote_verdict: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"state_vote_verdict · 24h · equity","stratum_id":"state_vote_verdict · 24h · equity · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"state_vote_verdict","horizon_tier":"24h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":296481,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable equity evidence for state_vote_verdict: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"ta_hawkes_jump · 8h · crypto","stratum_id":"ta_hawkes_jump · 8h · crypto · magnitude","claim_family":"magnitude","engine":"ta_hawkes_jump","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":29,"base_rate_pct":7.2,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0.24,"quiet_windows":37484,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":100,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"beats_chance","label":"Beats chance","probabilityOfSkill":0.9999999999436536,"reason":"29.0% of 100 warnings came true, against a 7.2% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Beats chance (probability the edge is real: 1.00)."},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no lead time (warned_events=0)"},{"stratum":"ta_hawkes_jump · 8h · crypto","stratum_id":"ta_hawkes_jump · 8h · crypto · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"ta_hawkes_jump","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":276439,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable crypto evidence for ta_hawkes_jump: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"ta_hawkes_jump · 8h · equity","stratum_id":"ta_hawkes_jump · 8h · equity · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"ta_hawkes_jump","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":39434,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable equity evidence for ta_hawkes_jump: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"tail_dependence · 48h · crypto","stratum_id":"tail_dependence · 48h · crypto · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"tail_dependence","horizon_tier":"48h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":278217,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable crypto evidence for tail_dependence: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"tail_dependence · 48h · equity","stratum_id":"tail_dependence · 48h · equity · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"tail_dependence","horizon_tier":"48h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":333178,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable equity evidence for tail_dependence: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"ta_kalman_momentum · 8h · crypto","stratum_id":"ta_kalman_momentum · 8h · crypto · directional","claim_family":"directional","engine":"ta_kalman_momentum","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":59.09,"base_rate_pct":52.76,"recall_pct":1.31,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0.26,"quiet_windows":38936,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":3,"effective_sample":110,"lead_median_hours":6.92,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"likely_beats_chance","label":"Likely beats chance","probabilityOfSkill":0.9084362026599774,"reason":"59.1% of 110 warnings came true, against a 52.8% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Likely beats chance (probability the edge is real: 0.91)."},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"lift is not distinguishable from zero (+6.33pp, Wilson95 floor -3.01pp, n_eff=110)"},{"stratum":"ta_kalman_momentum · 8h · crypto","stratum_id":"ta_kalman_momentum · 8h · crypto · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"ta_kalman_momentum","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0.41,"quiet_windows":4345,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable crypto evidence for ta_kalman_momentum: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"ta_kalman_momentum · 8h · equity","stratum_id":"ta_kalman_momentum · 8h · equity · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"ta_kalman_momentum","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":39434,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable equity evidence for ta_kalman_momentum: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"ta_mean_reversion · 8h · crypto","stratum_id":"ta_mean_reversion · 8h · crypto · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"ta_mean_reversion","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":276439,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable crypto evidence for ta_mean_reversion: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"ta_mean_reversion · 8h · equity","stratum_id":"ta_mean_reversion · 8h · equity · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"ta_mean_reversion","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":39434,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable equity evidence for ta_mean_reversion: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"ta_topology_regime · 8h · crypto","stratum_id":"ta_topology_regime · 8h · crypto · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"ta_topology_regime","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":276439,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable crypto evidence for ta_topology_regime: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"ta_topology_regime · 8h · equity","stratum_id":"ta_topology_regime · 8h · equity · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"ta_topology_regime","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":39434,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable equity evidence for ta_topology_regime: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"ta_transport_shift · 8h · crypto","stratum_id":"ta_transport_shift · 8h · crypto · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"ta_transport_shift","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":276439,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable crypto evidence for ta_transport_shift: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"ta_transport_shift · 8h · equity","stratum_id":"ta_transport_shift · 8h · equity · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"ta_transport_shift","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":39434,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable equity evidence for ta_transport_shift: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"temporal_arbitrage · 24h · crypto","stratum_id":"temporal_arbitrage · 24h · crypto · event_detection","claim_family":"event_detection","engine":"temporal_arbitrage","horizon_tier":"24h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":0,"base_rate_pct":0,"recall_pct":0.08,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0.08,"quiet_windows":123285,"base_kind":"symbol_matched","warned_events":1,"effective_sample":74,"lead_median_hours":21.09,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"indistinguishable_from_chance","label":"Indistinguishable from chance","probabilityOfSkill":0.5,"reason":"No usable base rate for this claim (0.0%), so the record cannot be set against chance."},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"precision does not beat its own base rate (0.0 vs 0.0)"},{"stratum":"temporal_arbitrage · 24h · crypto","stratum_id":"temporal_arbitrage · 24h · crypto · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"temporal_arbitrage","horizon_tier":"24h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0.05,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":null,"quiet_windows":null,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":1,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":21.09,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable crypto evidence for temporal_arbitrage: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"temporal_arbitrage · 24h · equity","stratum_id":"temporal_arbitrage · 24h · equity · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"temporal_arbitrage","horizon_tier":"24h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":146998,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable equity evidence for temporal_arbitrage: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"tick_flow_imbalance · 8h · crypto","stratum_id":"tick_flow_imbalance · 8h · crypto · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"tick_flow_imbalance","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":316872,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable crypto evidence for tick_flow_imbalance: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"tick_flow_imbalance · 8h · equity","stratum_id":"tick_flow_imbalance · 8h · equity · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"tick_flow_imbalance","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":353416,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable equity evidence for tick_flow_imbalance: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"tick_flow_imbalance_up · 8h · crypto","stratum_id":"tick_flow_imbalance_up · 8h · crypto · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"tick_flow_imbalance_up","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":316872,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable crypto evidence for tick_flow_imbalance_up: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"tick_flow_imbalance_up · 8h · equity","stratum_id":"tick_flow_imbalance_up · 8h · equity · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"tick_flow_imbalance_up","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":353416,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable equity evidence for tick_flow_imbalance_up: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"tick_liquidation_cascade · 8h · crypto","stratum_id":"tick_liquidation_cascade · 8h · crypto · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"tick_liquidation_cascade","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":316872,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable crypto evidence for tick_liquidation_cascade: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"tick_liquidation_cascade · 8h · equity","stratum_id":"tick_liquidation_cascade · 8h · equity · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"tick_liquidation_cascade","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":353416,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable equity evidence for tick_liquidation_cascade: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"tick_price_gap · 8h · crypto","stratum_id":"tick_price_gap · 8h · crypto · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"tick_price_gap","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":316872,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable crypto evidence for tick_price_gap: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"tick_price_gap · 8h · equity","stratum_id":"tick_price_gap · 8h · equity · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"tick_price_gap","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":353416,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable equity evidence for tick_price_gap: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"tick_price_gap_up · 8h · crypto","stratum_id":"tick_price_gap_up · 8h · crypto · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"tick_price_gap_up","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":316872,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable crypto evidence for tick_price_gap_up: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"tick_price_gap_up · 8h · equity","stratum_id":"tick_price_gap_up · 8h · equity · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"tick_price_gap_up","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":353416,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable equity evidence for tick_price_gap_up: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"tick_volume_burst · 8h · crypto","stratum_id":"tick_volume_burst · 8h · crypto · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"tick_volume_burst","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":316872,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable crypto evidence for tick_volume_burst: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"tick_volume_burst · 8h · equity","stratum_id":"tick_volume_burst · 8h · equity · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"tick_volume_burst","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":353416,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable equity evidence for tick_volume_burst: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"tick_volume_burst_up · 8h · crypto","stratum_id":"tick_volume_burst_up · 8h · crypto · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"tick_volume_burst_up","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":316872,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable crypto evidence for tick_volume_burst_up: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"tick_volume_burst_up · 8h · equity","stratum_id":"tick_volume_burst_up · 8h · equity · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"tick_volume_burst_up","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":353416,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable equity evidence for tick_volume_burst_up: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"volatility · 2h · crypto","stratum_id":"volatility · 2h · crypto · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"volatility","horizon_tier":"2h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":324535,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable crypto evidence for volatility: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"volatility · 2h · equity","stratum_id":"volatility · 2h · equity · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"volatility","horizon_tier":"2h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":363311,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable equity evidence for volatility: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"volatility_iv_rv · 2h · crypto","stratum_id":"volatility_iv_rv · 2h · crypto · magnitude","claim_family":"magnitude","engine":"volatility_iv_rv","horizon_tier":"2h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":0,"base_rate_pct":7.34,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":41052,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":1,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"indistinguishable_from_chance","label":"Indistinguishable from chance","probabilityOfSkill":0.18241003322433935,"reason":"0.0% of 1 warnings came true, against a 7.3% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Indistinguishable from chance (probability the edge is real: 0.18)."},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no lead time (warned_events=0)"},{"stratum":"volatility_iv_rv · 2h · crypto","stratum_id":"volatility_iv_rv · 2h · crypto · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"volatility_iv_rv","horizon_tier":"2h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":281097,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable crypto evidence for volatility_iv_rv: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"volatility_iv_rv · 2h · equity","stratum_id":"volatility_iv_rv · 2h · equity · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"volatility_iv_rv","horizon_tier":"2h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":45499,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable equity evidence for volatility_iv_rv: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"volatility_realised · 2h · crypto","stratum_id":"volatility_realised · 2h · crypto · magnitude","claim_family":"magnitude","engine":"volatility_realised","horizon_tier":"2h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":5.51,"base_rate_pct":6.96,"recall_pct":40.52,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":49.34,"quiet_windows":112570,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":913,"effective_sample":202403,"lead_median_hours":1.14,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"worse_than_chance","label":"Worse than chance","probabilityOfSkill":0,"reason":"5.5% of 202,403 warnings came true, against a 7.0% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Worse than chance (probability the edge is real: 0.00)."},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"precision does not beat its own base rate (5.51 vs 6.96)"},{"stratum":"volatility_realised · 2h · crypto","stratum_id":"volatility_realised · 2h · crypto · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"volatility_realised","horizon_tier":"2h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":null,"quiet_windows":null,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable crypto evidence for volatility_realised: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"volatility_realised · 2h · equity","stratum_id":"volatility_realised · 2h · equity · magnitude","claim_family":"magnitude","engine":"volatility_realised","horizon_tier":"2h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":4.07,"base_rate_pct":5.4,"recall_pct":8.51,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":8.88,"quiet_windows":135134,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":202,"effective_sample":50631,"lead_median_hours":0.85,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"worse_than_chance","label":"Worse than chance","probabilityOfSkill":0,"reason":"4.1% of 50,631 warnings came true, against a 5.4% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Worse than chance (probability the edge is real: 0.00)."},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"precision does not beat its own base rate (4.07 vs 5.4)"},{"stratum":"volatility_realised · 2h · equity","stratum_id":"volatility_realised · 2h · equity · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"volatility_realised","horizon_tier":"2h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":null,"quiet_windows":null,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable equity evidence for volatility_realised: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"volatility_v2 · 2h · crypto","stratum_id":"volatility_v2 · 2h · crypto · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"volatility_v2","horizon_tier":"2h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0.73,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0.43,"quiet_windows":146709,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":21,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":1.28,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable crypto evidence for volatility_v2: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"volatility_v2 · 2h · equity","stratum_id":"volatility_v2 · 2h · equity · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"volatility_v2","horizon_tier":"2h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":172953,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable equity evidence for volatility_v2: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"volume_shock · 8h · crypto","stratum_id":"volume_shock · 8h · crypto · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"volume_shock","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":320895,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable crypto evidence for volume_shock: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"volume_shock · 8h · equity","stratum_id":"volume_shock · 8h · equity · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"volume_shock","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":357822,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable equity evidence for volume_shock: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"wick_sweep · 8h · crypto","stratum_id":"wick_sweep · 8h · crypto · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"wick_sweep","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":320895,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable crypto evidence for wick_sweep: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"wick_sweep · 8h · equity","stratum_id":"wick_sweep · 8h · equity · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"wick_sweep","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":357822,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable equity evidence for wick_sweep: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"}],"headline":{"day":"2026-10-25T00:00:00.000Z","engine":"state_vote_verdict","horizon_tier":"24h","bar_regime":"crypto","qualifying_events":191,"warned_events":80,"recall_pct":41.88,"lead_p25_hours":10.79,"lead_median_hours":13.39,"lead_p75_hours":19.82,"effective_sample":5285,"precision_pct":68.85,"base_rate_pct":54.97,"publishable":true,"methodology_version":"v9-early-onset-warnings-only-2026-10-10","computed_at":"2026-10-25T07:43:15.215Z","claim_family":"directional","identity_population":"verified_only","quiet_windows":34534,"quiet_warned":11492,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":33.28,"events_from":"2026-10-09T13:25:03.561Z","base_kind":null,"measured_on":"2026-10-25T00:00:00.000Z","claim_family_resolved":"directional","claim_family_label":"Directional: precision is the share of calls where price moved the way this stratum said it would.","verdict":{"grade":"beats_chance","label":"Beats chance","probabilityOfSkill":1,"reason":"68.8% of 5,285 warnings came true, against a 55.0% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Beats chance (probability the edge is real: 1.00)."}},"headlineWithheldReason":null,"headlineSelection":{"rankedBy":"recall_pct","among":"strata clearing the publishability gate with positive base-rate lift","minEffectiveSample":1000,"maxStratumLagDays":3,"eligibleStrata":9},"claimKind":{"family":"directional","means":"Directional: precision is the share of calls where price moved the way this stratum said it would.","isDirectional":true},"recordSelection":{"collapsedTo":"newest row per engine × horizon × instrument class","maxStratumLagDays":3,"publishedStrata":16,"withheldFrozen":6,"withheldStale":0},"abstentionReason":null,"provenance":{"methodology":"https://fahaliai.com/methodology#vlt","methodologyVersion":"v9-early-onset-warnings-only-2026-10-10","methodologyVersions":["v9-early-onset-warnings-only-2026-10-10"],"floor":"2026-07-02T12:00:00Z"}}