Every Fahali detection is recorded and later resolved against what the market actually did. Hits and misses live in the same ledger, on the same scale. The honesty is the point — and it's why this page does not show a headline accuracy number yet.
Why there's no big percentage on this page. The outcome ledger was reset in mid-2026. We will not publish a per-engine accuracy figure until it has resolved enough signals across a mixed market regime to be statistically honest — not a one-directional stretch where a directionless signal can look "right" without adding any information. We would rather publish nothing than publish a number we can't stand behind. When it's earned, the full scorecard appears here.
A detection fires and is written to the signal-to-outcome ledger with a unique ID, the engine(s) involved, the symbol, a timestamp, the predicted direction where applicable, and a confidence score.
After the forecast horizon (1h, 4h, 24h, up to 48h+ depending on the engine), the call is resolved against realized price action and marked correct or incorrect — and that result is stored permanently.
Incorrect calls stay in the same ledger as correct ones. There is no separate scorekeeping, no filtered dataset, no sanitized retrospective. The record compounds with every market session and cannot be back-filled.
Detections are not all the same kind of claim, so they are scored on the axis that fits.
For directional engines: was the predicted up/down correct against the net return over the horizon?
Did a meaningful move actually occur (e.g. a move beyond a small threshold), regardless of direction?
For regime/expansion signals: did volatility expand as flagged? Directionless by design.
For crash-class signals: did a rapid decline materialize within the warning window?
These numbers are pulled live from the signal-to-outcome ledger. They are interim while the ledger grows across a mixed market regime, and they include misses.
The ledger is still accumulating across a single-directional regime. We will publish the full per-engine scorecard with base-rate lift once it has resolved across a mixed market regime — as promised on this page. The data and method are real; the restraint is the point.
Here is one number we can stand behind today — because it is relative lift measured inside the same market window, so it does not depend on which way the market happened to go. We group the ledger's already-resolved signals into moments where several independent engines fired on the same instrument at once, then ask a simple question: did those higher-agreement moments resolve better than the average single signal over the same period?
Pulling consensus tiers from the live signal-to-outcome ledger.
Read the lift, not the raw rate. Lift = a tier's hit-rate minus the average single signal's hit-rate over the same window. Because both are measured in the same regime, lift isolates the value of agreement from market drift — the metric we said we would report. The more independent engines that align, the larger the lift, which is what you would expect if the agreement carries real information. This is a relative measure, not a per-engine accuracy figure, and it is not advice — observation only.
The number that will matter is lift, not the raw percentage. In a falling market, a naive "always bearish" strategy can score ~100% on direction while adding zero information — it just rode the market. Base-rate lift measures how much better a signal performs than that naive baseline (lift = precision − base rate). When we publish the scorecard, we'll show both the raw figure and the lift, so you can separate genuine skill from market drift. Reporting a raw "accuracy %" alone would be a vanity metric, and we won't do it.
It is not a marketing scorecard of impressive-looking numbers. Anyone can publish a percentage; few publish the misses behind it and fewer still withhold the number until it's statistically honest. That restraint — observable here — is itself the credibility signal. When the ledger qualifies, this page becomes the live per-engine scorecard with direction / magnitude / volatility / crash breakdowns and base-rate lift for each engine.
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