Dashboard

NVDA Detection Map

11 of 18 engines aligned bearish. AWM regime: Rotation / AI unwind. Updated every 60 seconds.

Engine: ensemble

Latest Forecast

Direction (short-term)Bearish

Direction (medium-term)Neutral

30-day forecast range$88 – $104

Confidence62%

Signal triggerMomentum exhaustion + AI capex uncertainty

Ensemble consensus is bearish short-term. Medium-term neutral reflects uncertainty around the Aug 21 earnings catalyst.

Engine: volatility

Risk & Drawdown

30-day realized vol48.2%

Max drawdown (52w high)−22.4%

VaR (95%, 1d)−3.8%

Risk regimeHIGH

NVDA is in the 93rd percentile of its own vol distribution. Mechanical deleveraging risk remains elevated.

Engine: order flow

Institutional Activity

Order flow proxy (5d)NET SELLING

Large blocks >$5M12 blocks, 10 sell side

Est. institutional flow (5d)−$340M

Whale alert1 put block, $90 strike

Institutions distributing. The Goldman prime broker data on semis confirms broad selling pressure across the sector.

Engine: risk intelligence

Options Market

Put/Call ratio1.34 (elevated)

Max pain$102

Gamma exposureNegative (below $95)

OI concentration$100 & $90 strikes

Options market pricing downside protection. Max pain at $102 suggests dealers want price higher but flow is bearish.

Engine: momentum + pattern

Technical Regime

Trend (50d MA)Below ($112, declining)

Trend (200d MA)Above ($84, intact)

RSI (14)32 (oversold)

Pattern detectedWyckoff distribution

Short-term momentum is broken. Long-term trend still intact but being tested. Pattern engine sees distribution, not accumulation.

Engine: fundamentals aggregator

Fundamentals

P/E (trailing)~52x

Revenue growth (YoY)+94%

EPS beat (last qtr)+8.2%

Next earningsAug 21, 2026

Valuation is demanding but revenue growth is still exceptional. The risk is the AI capex cycle, not NVDA's execution.

Engine: correlation engine

Macro Exposure

NVDA-QQQ correlation (30d)ρ = 0.81

NVDA-SOX correlation (30d)ρ = 0.89

NVDA-DXY correlation (30d)ρ = −0.34

Tail dependence (semis)HIGH

NVDA trades as a pure semiconductor proxy. Any SOX move of −2%+ implies an ~1.8% move in NVDA. No alpha from single-stock selection right now.

Engine: sector mapping

Supply Chain

TSMC dependencyCritical (H100/B200)

Memory dependencyCritical (Micron HBM3E)

Geopolitical: Taiwan straitHIGH

Geopolitical: US export controlsMODERATE

The Taiwan risk premium is embedded but underpriced. A US-China escalation on semiconductor export controls would be a direct negative.

Engine: volume anomaly + early warning

News Impact

News sentiment (7d)Negative (−0.37)

Volume anomaly (Jul 2)2.1x normal

News volume (24h)47 articles

Top storyJPMorgan: semis-hyperscaler divergence unsustainable

News flow is uniformly negative and volume confirms the distribution. No positive catalysts visible in the news corpus.

Engine: AWM — Adaptive Weighting Mechanism

Fahali Confidence

Overall signal confidence63 / 100

Engine agreement11 of 18 aligned (bearish)

Regime contextRotation / AI unwind

Last AWM recalibrationJul 6, 14:15 UTC

Moderate confidence in the bearish short-term view. The AWM has weighted volatility and order flow engines higher than fundamentals in this regime.

Engine: track record

Historical Accuracy

Total NVDA signals47

Correct directional31 (66%)

Incorrect16 (34%)

Accuracy (1d / 7d / 30d)71%64%58%

Last 10 signals7 correct, 3 incorrect

Directional accuracy on NVDA is above base rate (50% coin-flip, ~38% buy-and-hold). Longer horizons degrade as expected.

Signal History

Recent NVDA Alerts

The last 7 detections from Fahali's engine scan loop. Each alert represents a single engine firing on NVDA.

Time (UTC)	Engine	Alert Type	Signal	Conf
Jul 6, 09:45	momentum	Bearish exhaustion detected	SELL	0.72
Jul 6, 08:30	volatility	Vol spike regime triggered	HIGH RISK	0.81
Jul 5, 14:20	order_flow	Sustained institutional distribution	SELL	0.68
Jul 5, 10:15	pattern	Wyckoff distribution confirmed	SELL	0.75
Jul 4, 11:30	risk_intelligence	Whale put block $90 strike detected	FLAG	0.64
Jul 3, 09:00	early_warning	SOX divergence / hyperscaler decoupling	WARN	0.58
Jul 2, 15:45	volume_anomaly	Volume spike 2.1x normal (SOX selloff)	FLAG	0.61

Data from spectra_signal_outcomes + alerts tables. Confidence score 0–1.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does Fahali detect on NVDA?

Fahali runs 18 detection engines against NVDA every 60 seconds. The system monitors volatility regimes, institutional order flow, options market positioning, momentum and pattern recognition, macro correlation exposure, supply chain risk, news sentiment, and 12 additional dimensions. Each engine produces an independent signal and confidence score. The Adaptive Weighting Mechanism (AWM) determines which engines carry more weight based on the current market regime. Currently, 11 of 18 engines are aligned on a bearish short-term view.

How often does this page update?

The underlying detection engines scan NVDA every 60 seconds in real time. This page reflects a snapshot taken at the timestamp shown in the hero — currently July 6, 2026 at 14:30 UTC. For live updates with sub-minute latency, open Fahali's Live Read dashboard at app.fahaliai.com/insights.

What engines cover NVDA specifically?

All 18 engines in Fahali's detection system cover NVDA: dark pool, pattern recognition, volume anomaly, ML ensemble, market regime, risk intelligence, order flow, market depth, tail dependence, volatility, leverage, funding stress, early warning, crash predictor, momentum, stablecoin, correlation, and walk forward. Each engine runs its full detection pipeline on NVDA every scan cycle. The dashboard above shows outputs from the most impactful engines for the current regime.

How accurate is Fahali on NVDA?

Fahali has generated 47 directional signals on NVDA since tracking began, with 66% correct directional calls. Horizon accuracy degrades as expected: 71% at 1-day, 64% at 7-day, 58% at 30-day. The last 10 signals are 7 correct and 3 incorrect. These figures are above the coin-flip base rate (50%) and significantly above the buy-and-hold base rate (~38% for directional bets on a single stock). Accuracy is measured against verified outcomes via the signal-outcome moat resolver.

Can I get real-time NVDA alerts from Fahali?

Yes. Fahali's Professional tier ($79/mo) includes real-time alert delivery via Telegram or webhook when any engine fires on NVDA. The Elite tier ($299/mo) adds cross-engine aggregation, AWM-weighted consensus signals, and portfolio-level alert routing. Both tiers include access to the full detection history and engine-level drill-down. Start at app.fahaliai.com.